自然分形在负荷预测中的应用APPLICATION OF NATURAL FRACTAL IN LOAD FORECASTING
蒋正威
摘要(Abstract):
传统的负荷预测方法通常只能描述原始数据序列的长期趋势或季节性、周期性趋势等宏观行为。而对于表现微观行为的粗糙数据则难于建模。通过将原始序列分解成光滑部分和粗糙部分,在用传统方法对光滑部分进行建模的基础上以自然分形对粗糙部分进行建模,提高了预测的精度。计算实例表明该模型能很好地与原始序列拟合,且具有良好的预测效果。
关键词(KeyWords): 负荷预测;自然分形;灰色模型;小波变换;电力系统
基金项目(Foundation):
作者(Author): 蒋正威
Email:
DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2004.24.007
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