王艳玲;严志杰;梁立凯;韩学山;周晓峰;

• 1:山东大学机电与信息工程学院
• 2:山东大学电气工程学院
• 3:威海职业学院机电系

摘要(Abstract)：

架空线路传统的静态热定值采用固化的、苛刻的气象参数组合计算一成不变的线路最大热载流量,计算结果往往偏于保守。为此,采用气象数据驱动的统计分析方法,将全年恒定载流量转换为季节或月份载流量,缩短热定值的时间尺度。通过运行环境下实际气象数据的统计分析,实现气象数据驱动的架空线路载流的动态定值。基于CIGRE标准热平衡方程,采用控制变量法识别影响线路热定值结果的关键气象参数;进而对关键气象参数的历史数据进行统计分析,确定不同置信水平、不同时间尺度(按月、按季度和按年)气象数据子集内的气象参数阈值,通过各参数阈值计算相应时间尺度下的热定值;并利用当前运行年度的实际气象数据对各时间尺度定值结果进行运行风险评估。结果表明,根据电网允许的运行风险可方便地确定合适的气象参数置信水平和相应的热载流定值,基于气象数据驱动的架空线路热定值有效地挖掘了线路的热载流能力。

关键词(KeyWords)： 架空线路;气象数值;热定值;运行风险;时间尺度

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(51407111,51407106,51607107,51641702);; 山东省科技发展计划项目(ZR2015ZX045)~~

作者(Author): 王艳玲;严志杰;梁立凯;韩学山;周晓峰;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2017.1606

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