王钰楠;杨镜非;何也帅;王冠男;

• 1:上海交通大学电子信息与电气工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

主动配电网运行风险的有效评估和及时预警是保障其安全稳定运行的重要前提。文章基于复杂网络理论首次提出了网络流转移分布因子,从网络流大小和方向2方面实现了拓扑及参数变化对网络流影响的有效线性近似。考虑拓扑时变性、参数不确定性和用户侧自发电馈电形式的多样性,通过制定归一化的风险指标和线性评估方案实现了基于当前网络状态的运行风险的及时有效评估。以概率性序列计算代替蒙特卡洛模拟,在遍历所有可能的多场景、提高分析准确性的基础上,也极大地提高了计算速率,有利于对系统当前运行状态的及时反馈。风险评估结果的序列表现形式也有利于调度进行重点线路监测和风险指标定制,为主动配电网的运行调整决策提供可靠的评估依据。最后,基于改进的IEEE 33节点系统验证了所提方法的有效性。

关键词(KeyWords)： 网络流转移分布因子;主动配电网;风险评估;风险预警;概率性序列;多场景分析

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家高技术研究发展计划项目(863计划)(2014AA051901)~~

作者(Author): 王钰楠;杨镜非;何也帅;王冠男;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2016.2815

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