基于模糊CVaR理论的水火电系统随机调度多目标优化模型Stochastic Scheduling Multi-Objective Optimization Model for Hydro-Thermal Power Systems Based on Fuzzy CVaR Theory
邓创;鞠立伟;刘俊勇;谭忠富;
摘要(Abstract):
为解决负荷不确定性对水火电力系统安全调度的影响,实现系统发电能耗、污染物排放和梯级水电站蓄水量最优的目标,首先引入多目标CVaR方法,将负荷需求实际值与预测值偏差作为随机变量,重新定义了含置信水平要求的调度目标函数。结合系统运行约束条件,构建了考虑存在不确定因素情景下的水火电多目标调度优化模型。然后,为了求解所提模型,在对非线性约束条件进行线性化处理后,分别应用模糊满意度理论和熵权理论模糊化和加权多目标函数,形成了属于混合整数线性规划的熵权模糊多目标CVaR模型。最后,选用6个火电厂和3个梯级水电站作为水火电调度系统,对所提模型进行算例仿真。结果表明,多目标CVaR方法适用于解决水火电调度优化问题,能够较好地反映调度结果的风险水平;熵权模糊满意度求解算法可以有效简化模型求解过程,得到最优的调度运行方案。
关键词(KeyWords): 水火电调度;多目标CVaR;不确定性负荷;熵权法;模糊满意度理论
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(71273090,71573084)~~
作者(Author): 邓创;鞠立伟;刘俊勇;谭忠富;
Email:
DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2016.05.023
参考文献(References):
- [1]Jiang C,Bompard E.A self-adaptive chaotic particle swarm algorithm for short term hydroelectric system scheduling in deregulated environment[J].Energy Conversion and Management,2005,46(17):2689-2696.
- [2]谭忠富,陈广娟,赵建保,等.以节能调度为导向的发电侧与售电侧峰谷分时电价联合优化模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2009,29(1):55-62.Tan Zhongfu,Chen Guangjuan,Zhao Jianbao,et al.Optimization model for designing peak-valley time-of-use power price of generation side and sale side at the direction of energy conservation dispatch[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2009,29(1):55-62(in Chinese).
- [3]胡兆光.中国特色的低碳经济、能源、电力之路初探[J].中国能源,2009,31(11):16-19.Hu Zhaoguang.Study on the pattern of China low-carbon economy[J].Energy of China,2009,31(11):16-19(in Chinese).
- [4]She X,Huang A Q,Wang F,et al.Wind energy system with integrated functions of active power transfer,reactive power compensation and voltage conversion[J].IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics,2013,60(10):4512-4524.
- [5]Qin S J.Partial least square regression for recursive system identification[C]//The 32nd IEEE Conference on Decision and Control.San Antonio,TX,USA:IEEE,1993:2617-2622.
- [6]茆美琴,周松林,苏建徽.基于脊波神经网络的短期风电功率预测[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(7):70-74.Mao Meiqin,Zhou Songlin,Su Jianhui.Short-term wind power forecast based on ridgelet neural network[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2011,35(7):70-74(in Chinese).
- [7]张国强,张伯明.基于组合预测的风电场风速及风电机功率预测[J].电力系统自动化,2009,33(18):92-95,109.Zhang Guoqiang,Zhang Boming.Wind speed and wind turbine output forecast based on combination method[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2009,33(18):92-95,109(in Chinese).
- [8]Feng Y,Li R,Sudjianto A,et al.Robust neural network with applications to credit portfolio data analysis[J].Statistics and Its Interface,2010,3(4):437.
- [9]段炜,胡兆光,吴思竹,等.基于智能体响应均衡模型的经济政策——电力需求动态模拟[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(7):1206-1212.Duan Wei,Hu Zhaoguang,Wu Sizhu,et al.Dynamic simulation of economic policy and electricity demand by agents response equilibrium model[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(7):1206-1212(in Chinese).
- [10]陆宁,周建中,何耀耀.粒子群优化的神经网络模型在短期负荷预测中的应用[J].电力系统保护与控制,2010,38(12):65-68.Lu Ning,Zhou Jianzhong,He Yaoyao.Particle swarm optimization-based neural network model for short-term load forecasting[J].Power System Protection and Control,2010,38(12):65-68(in Chinese).
- [11]吴雄,王秀丽,李骏,等.风电储能混合系统的联合调度模型及求解[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(33):10-17.Wu Xiong,Wang Xiuli,Li Jun,et al.A joint operation model and solution for hybrid wind energy storage systems[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(33):10-17(in Chinese).
- [12]胡泽春,丁华杰,孔涛.风电-抽水蓄能联合日运行优化调度模型[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(2):36-41,57.Hu Zechun,Ding Huajie,Kong Tao.A joint daily operational model for wind power and pumped-storage plant[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(2):36-41,57(in Chinese).
- [13]Grake J H,Kirchmayer L K.Optimum operation of a hydrothermal system[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems,1962,80(3):242-250.
- [14]Yeh W W.Optimization of real time hydrothermal system operation[J].Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management,1992,118(6):636-653.
- [15]吴小珊,张步涵,袁小明,等.求解含风电场的电力系统机组组合问题的改进量子离散粒子群优化方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(4):45-52,7.Wu Xiaoshan,Zhang Buhan,Yuan Xiaoming,et al.Solutions to unit commitment problems in power systems with wind farms using advanced quantum-inspired binary PSO[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(4):45-52,7(in Chinese).
- [16]Abreu L V L,Khodayar M E,Shahidehpour M,et al.Risk-constrained coordination of cascaded hydro units with variable wind power generation[J].IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy,2012,3(3):359-368.
- [17]蒋敏,姜宝珍,孟志青,等.基于多目标CVa R模型的证券组合投资的风险度量和策略[J].经济数学,2007,24(4):385-391.Jiang Min,Jiang Baozhen,Meng Zhiqing,et al.Risk measure and strategy of portfolio investment based on the multiobjective CVa R model[J].Mathematics in Economics,2007,24(4):385-391(in Chinese).
- [18]吴杰康,唐力.含不确定性负荷的水火电力系统随机优化调度[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(28):36-44.Wu Jiekang,Tang Li.Stochastic optimization scheduling method for hydrothermal power systems with stochastic loads[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2012,32(28):36-44(in Chinese).
- [19]齐敏芳,付忠广,景源,等.基于信息熵与主成分分析的火电机组综合评价方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(2):58-65.Qi Minfang,Fu Zhongguang,Jing Yuan,et al.A comprehensive evaluation method of power plant units based on information entropy and principal component analysis[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(2):58-65(in Chinese).