赵珊珊;张东霞;印永华;

• 1:中国电力科学研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

提出了智能电网风险评估的基本思路和总体框架,针对智能电网带来的新的不确定性,从工程风险和金融风险两方面提出了评估的内容和方法。总结了工程风险评估的研究现状,讨论了其在智能电网各领域的应用前景。分析了市场条件下分布式电源、大型可再生能源电源等新型电源和供电公司面临的金融风险,研究了电力市场不同发展阶段和典型模式对风险的影响。

关键词(KeyWords)： 智能电网;风险评估;工程风险;金融风险;电力市场;分布式发电(DG);可再生能源发电

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 赵珊珊;张东霞;印永华;

Email:

DOI:

参考文献(References)：

• [1]EPRI.IntelliGrid architecture status report:technology transfer activities and recommendations[R].Palo Alto,CA,USA:EPRI,2005.
• [2]Grid Wise Architecture Council.Gridwise interoperability context-setting framework[EB/OL].2008-03-19.http://www.gridwiseac.org.
• [3]US Department of Energy,National Energy Technology Laboratory.Modern grid initiative:a vision for modern grid[EB/OL].2009-06-19.http://www.netl.doe.gov/moderngrid/docs.
• [4]European Smartgrids Technology Platform.Vision and strategy for europe’s electricity networks of the future[EB/OL].2006-04-07.http://www.smartgrids.eu.
• [5]Strategic research agenda for europe’s electricity network of the future[EB/OL].2006-12-18.http://www.smartgrids.eu.
• [6]Strategic deployment document[EB/OL].2008-09-25.http://www.smartgrids.eu.
• [7]周子冠,白晓民,李文锋,等.基于广域测量系统的电网故障在线智能化诊断与分析方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2009,29(13):1-7.Zhou Ziguan,Bai Xiaomin,Li Wenfeng,et al.A novel smart on-line fault diagnosis and analysis approach of power grid based on WAMS[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2009,29(13):1-7(in Chinese).
• [8]刘强,石立宝,倪以信,等.电力系统恢复控制的网络重构智能优化策略[J].中国电机工程学报,2009,29(13):8-15.Liu Qiang,Shi Libao,Ni Yixin,et al.Intelligent optimization strategy of the power grid reconfiguration during power system restoration[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2009,29(13):8-15(in Chinese).
• [9]陈树勇,宋书芳,李兰欣,等.智能电网技术综述[J].电网技术,2009,33(8):1-7.Chen Shuyong,Song Shufang,Li Lanxin,et al.Survey on smart grid technology[J].Power System Technology,2009,33(8):1-7(in Chinese).
• [10]王明俊.自愈电网与分布能源[J].电网技术,2007,31(6):1-7.Wang Mingjun.Self-healing grid and distributed energy resource[J].Power System Technology,2007,31(6):1-7(In Chinese).
• [11]丁明,张颖媛,茆美琴.微网研究中的关键技术[J].电网技术,2009,33(11):6-11.Ding Ming,Zhang Yingyuan,Mao Meiqin.Key technologies for microgrids being researched[J].Power System Technology,2009,33(11):6-11(In Chinese).
• [12]黄伟,孙昶辉,吴子平,等.含分布式发电系统的微网技术研究综述[J].电网技术,2009,33(9):14-18.Huang Wei,Sun Changhui,Wu Ziping,et al.A review on microgrid technology containing distributed generation system[J].Power System Technology,2009,33(9):14-18(in Chinese).
• [13]钟金,郑睿敏,杨卫红,等.建设信息时代的智能电网[J].电网技术,2009,33(3):12-18.Zhong Jin,Zheng Ruimin,Yang Weihong,et al.Construction of smart grid at information age[J].Power System Technology,2009,33(3):12-18(in Chinese).
• [14]林宇峰,钟金,吴复立.智能电网技术体系探讨[J].电网技术,2009,33(12):8-14.Lin Yufeng,Zhong Jin,Wu Fuli.Discussion on smart grid supporting technologies[J].Power System Technology,2009,33(12):8-14(in Chinese).
• [15]张文亮,刘壮志,王明俊,等.智能电网的研究进展及发展趋势[J].电网技术,2009,33(13):1-11.Zhang Wenliang,Liu Zhuangzhi,Wang Mingjun,et al.Research status and development trend of smart grid[J].Power System Technology,2009,33(13):1-11(in Chinese).
• [16]汤奕,Manisa P,邵盛楠,等.中国、美国和欧盟智能电网之比较研究[J].电网技术,2009,33(14):46-54.Tang Yi,Manisa P,Shao Shengnan,et al.Comparative study on smart grid related R&D in China,the United States and the European Union[J].Power System Technology,2009,33(14):46-54(in Chinese).
• [17]胡学浩.智能电网:未来电网的发展态势[J].电网技术,2009,33(14):1-5.Hu Xuehao.Smart grid:a development trend of future power grid[J].Power System Technology,2009,33(14):1-5(in Chinese).
• [18]Han Feng,Yin Ming,Li Jun,et al.Discussions on related issues of smart grid development in China[J].Power System Technology,2009,33(15):47-53(in Chinese).
• [19]Mohammad Modarres.Risk analysis in engineering:techniques,tools and trends[M].CRC Press,2006:36-45.
• [20]Li Wenyuan.Risk assessment of power system:model,methods,and applications[M].New York,USA:John Wiley&Sons,2005:108-164.
• [21]王伟,毛安家,张粒子,等.市场条件下电力系统暂态安全风险评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2009,29(1):68-73.Wang Wei,Mao Anjia,Zhang Lizi,et al.Risk assessment of power system transient security under market condition[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2009,29(1):68-73(in Chinese).
• [22]赵珊珊,周子冠,张东霞,等.大区互联电网动态稳定风险评估指标及应用[J].电网技术,2009,33(2):68-72.Zhao Shanshan,Zhou Ziguan,Zhang Dongxia,et al.Risk assessment index of dynamic stability for large-scale interconnected grids and its application[J].Power System Technology,2009,33(2):68-72(in Chinese).
• [23]宋毅,王成山.一种电力系统连锁故障的概率风险评估方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2009,29(4):27-33.Song Yi,Wang Chengshan.A probabilistic risk assessment method for cascading failure of power system[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2009,29(4):27-33(in Chinese).
• [24]吴文传,吕颖,张伯明.继电保护隐患的运行风险在线评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2009,29(7):78-83.Wu Wenchuan,LüYing,Zhang Boming.On-line operating risk assessment of hidden failures in protection system[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2009,29(7):78-83(in Chinese).
• [25]Philippe J.Value at risk:the new benchmark for managing financial risk[M].Second Edition.New York:McGraw-hill,2001:15-22.
• [26]Rockafellar R T,Uryasev S.Optimization of conditional value-at-risk[J].Journal of Risk,2000,2(3):21-41.
• [27]Deng S J,Oren S S.Electricity derivatives and risk management[R].Power Systems Engineering Research Centre,2005.
• [28]国家电力监管委员会.欧洲、澳洲电力市场[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2005:48-88.
• [29]国家电力监管委员会.美国电力市场[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2005:198-256.