黄文杰;傅砾;肖盛;

• 1:华北电力大学

摘要(Abstract)：

针对风速具有较强随机性的特点,提出一种基于改进模糊层次分析法的风速预测组合模型。以风速预测周期、风速的振荡性及预测者对预测模型的信赖度为目标准则;通过模糊判断矩阵的方法确定组合模型的最优权重。该组合模型可以综合考虑影响风速预测的多种不确定性因素,在综合不同模型预测结果的基础上引入专家经验。算例分析表明,该组合预测模型的预测结果与传统的单一预测模型相比,误差更小,精度更高。

关键词(KeyWords)： 风速预测;组合模型;模糊层次分析法;时序差分自回归滑动平均模型;自适应模糊神经网络模型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 黄文杰;傅砾;肖盛;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2010.07.020

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