张稳;盛万兴;刘科研;杜松怀;贾东梨;白牧可;

• 1:中国农业大学信息与电气工程学院
• 2:中国电力科学研究院有限公司

摘要(Abstract)：

配电网风险等级的准确性预测对配电网运行维护具有重要意义。针对配电网故障影响因素众多且冗余性强的问题,提出一种计及天气因素的配电网故障特征选择和故障停电风险等级预测的方法。通过对故障数据的预处理,归纳出18个配电网故障特征,综合考虑故障发生频率、停电时长和缺供电量比例,确定风险等级划分依据;提出改进G-Relief F算法实现对故障特征权重计算和冗余剔除,得到最优故障特征集合;基于Adaboost改进C4.5决策树算法进行配电网故障风险等级预测,挖掘故障停电风险等级与天气因素间的关联关系。通过实际算例分析,验证了所提方法的有效性,可以为配电网风险预控提供有效依据。

关键词(KeyWords)： 配电网;天气因素;特征选择;相关性;Adaboost;风险预测

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB0903000);; 国家电网公司科技项目(52020116000G)~~

作者(Author): 张稳;盛万兴;刘科研;杜松怀;贾东梨;白牧可;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2018.0760

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