温剑锋;陶顺;肖湘宁;骆晨;廖坤玉;

• 1:新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学)

摘要(Abstract)：

电动汽车充电需求的分析是研究充电对电网影响,充电设施规划布局等的基础,分析电动汽车充电需求首先需要较准确地描述用户行驶规律。为此提出一种基于出行链随机模拟的充电需求分析方法,首先结合出行链的概念,对出行链中各特征量(出行时刻、行驶时间、行驶里程、出行目的)的概率分布进行分析拟合;通过蒙特卡罗模拟法抽取样本,形成完整的出行链,实现用户出行行为的模拟;进而计算各功能区域的充电需求。以美国家庭出行调查(national household travel survey,NHTS)为基础数据,进行了方法应用及案例分析。结果表明,该方法可较准确地模拟用户的出行规律,反映充电需求的时空分布特点;而且不同的充电情景将导致不同的分布形式,从而影响系统的功率总需求。

关键词(KeyWords)： 电动汽车;充电需求;出行链;蒙特卡罗模拟

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 温剑锋;陶顺;肖湘宁;骆晨;廖坤玉;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2015.06.002

参考文献(References)：

• [1]张文亮,武斌,李武峰,等.我国纯电动汽车的发展方向及能源供给模式的探讨[J].电网技术,2009,33(4):1-5.Zhang Wenliang,Wu Bin,Li Wufeng,et al.Discussion on development trend of battery electric vehicles in China and its energy supply mode[J].Power System Technology,2009,33(4):1-5(in Chinese).
• [2]Fan Yi,Furong Li.An exploration of a probabilistic model for electric vehicles residential demand profile modeling[C]//2012 IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting.San Diego CA:IEEE,2012:1-6.
• [3]田立亭,史双龙,贾卓.电动汽车充电功率需求的统计学建模方法[J].电网技术,2010,34(11):126-130.Tian Liting,Shi Shuanglong,Jia Zhuo.A statistical model for charging power demand of electric vehicles[J].Power System Technology,2010,34(11):126-130(in Chinese).
• [4]杨冰,王丽芳,廖承林.大规模电动汽车充电需求及影响因素[J].电工技术学报,2013,28(2):22-27.Yang Bing,Wang Lifang,Liao Chenglin.Research on power-charging demand of large-scale electric vehicles and its impacting factors[J].Transactions of China Electro Technical Society,2013,28(2):22-27(in Chinese).
• [5]Shahidinejad S,Filizadeh S,Bibeau E.Profile of charging load on the grid due to plug-in vehicles[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2012,3(1):135-141.
• [6]Ghiasnezhad Omran N,Shahidinejad S.Location-based forecasting of vehicular charging load on the distribution system[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2014,5(2):632-641.
• [7]张洪财,胡泽春,宋永华,等.考虑时空分布的电动汽车充电负荷预测方法[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(1):13-20.Zhang Hongcai,Hu Zechun,Song Yonghua,et al.A prediction method for electric vehicle charging load considering spatial and temporal distribution[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(1):13-20(in Chinese).
• [8]蔡德福,钱斌,陈金富,等.含电动汽车充电负荷和风电的电力系统动态概率特性分析[J].电网技术,2013,37(3):590-596.Cai Defu,Qian Bin,Chen Jinfu,et al.Analysis on dynamic probabilistic characteristic of power grid connected with electric vehicle charging load and wind power[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(3):590-596(in Chinese).
• [9]葛少云,王龙,刘洪.计及电动汽车入网的峰谷电价时段优化模型研究[J].电网技术,2013,37(8):2316-2321.Ge Shaoyun,Wang Long,Liu Hong.An optimization model of peak-valley price time-interval considering vehicle-to-grid[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(8):2316-2321(in Chinese).
• [10]褚浩然,郑猛,杨晓光,等.出行链特征指标的提出及应用研究[J].城市交通,2006,4(2):64-67.Chu Haoran,Zheng Meng,Yang Xiaoguang,et al.A study on trip-chain indices and their application[J].Urban Transport of China,2006,4(2):64-67(in Chinese).
• [11]Dempster A P,laired N M,Rubin D B.Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,1977,B(39):1-38.
• [12]张香云,汪四水.基于EM算法的高斯混合密度参数估计[J].杭州师范学院学报:自然科学版,2005,4(5):349-352.Zhang Xiangyun,Wang Sishui.EM algorithm and parameter estimation in Gaussian mixture densities[J].Journal of Hangzhou Teachers College:Natural Science Edition,2005,4(5):349-352(in Chinese).
• [13]Gyemin Lee,Clayton Scott,EM algorithms for multivariate Gaussian mixture models with truncated and censored data[J].Computational Statistics&Data Analysis,2012,56(9):2816-2829.
• [14]周涛,韩筱璞,闫小勇,等.人类行为时空特性的统计力学[J].电子科技大学学报,2013,42(4):481-540.Zhou Tao,Han Xiaopu,Yan Xiaoyong,et al.Statistical mechanics on temporal and spatial activities of human[J].Journal of University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,2013,42(4):481-540(in Chinese).
• [15]Mauri G,Valsecchi A.Fast charging stations for electric vehicle:the impact on the mv distribution grids of the MILAN metropolitan area[C]//2012 IEEE International Energy Conference and Exhibition(ENERGYCON).Florence:IEEE,2012:1055-1059.
• [16]高赐威,张亮.电动汽车充电对电网影响的综述[J].电网技术,2011,35(2):127-131.Gao Ciwei,Zhang Liang.A survey of influence of electrics vehicle charging on power grid[J].Power System Technology,2011,35(2):127-131(in Chinese).
• [17]Amprion.Demand in control area[EB/OL].2014-09[2014-10].http://www.amprion.de/en/demand-in-control-area.