基于马尔可夫链的光伏发电系统输出功率短期预测方法A Method to Forecast Short-Term Output Power of Photovoltaic Generation System Based on Markov Chain
丁明;徐宁舟;
摘要(Abstract):
提出了一种直接预测光伏电站出力的方法。该方法基于马尔科夫链,通过统计光伏电站历史功率数据建模,直接预测光伏电站出力。理论推导证明了该数学模型的可行性。以教育部光伏中心的光伏电站为例进行建模预测,证明了该方法的有效性,并通过调整模型参数获得了更加精确的结果。
关键词(KeyWords): 光伏系统;预测;马尔可夫链;输出功率
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(50837001);; 国家863高技术基金项目(2007AA05Z240);; 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2009CB219702)~~
作者(Author): 丁明;徐宁舟;
Email:
DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2011.01.024
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