丁明;徐宁舟;

• 1:教育部光伏系统工程研究中心(合肥工业大学)

摘要(Abstract)：

提出了一种直接预测光伏电站出力的方法。该方法基于马尔科夫链,通过统计光伏电站历史功率数据建模,直接预测光伏电站出力。理论推导证明了该数学模型的可行性。以教育部光伏中心的光伏电站为例进行建模预测,证明了该方法的有效性,并通过调整模型参数获得了更加精确的结果。

关键词(KeyWords)： 光伏系统;预测;马尔可夫链;输出功率

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(50837001);; 国家863高技术基金项目(2007AA05Z240);; 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2009CB219702)~~

作者(Author): 丁明;徐宁舟;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2011.01.024

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