基于寿命数据的电力变压器经济寿命预测Economic Life Prediction of Power Transformers Based on the Lifetime Data
王慧芳;赵婉芳;杜振东;兰洲;何奔腾;
摘要(Abstract):
电力设备经济寿命的定量预测能为设备运维决策和电网规划提供依据。构建了以年等值成本最低为依据的变压器经济寿命预测模型。为计算模型中的关键参数,将变压器的全寿命数据进行分类和关键数据提取,采用无分布的比例故障率模型和蒙特卡洛模拟法计算得到故障率和停机持续时间的概率分布。然后分析经济要素,在计算电力变压器的年度检修成本、年度中断成本和年度运行成本的基础上,实现了电力变压器经济寿命的定量预测。最后以一台实际的220 k V现役变压器为例,按照所建立的预测模型进行了经济寿命预测的实证研究,结果表明预测模型不仅能有效利用设备寿命数据,而且预测结果合理,对变压器的运维决策,以及未来变电站的规划改造具有指导意义。
关键词(KeyWords): 电力变压器;经济寿命预测;比例故障率模型;蒙特卡洛模拟
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(51107112)~~
作者(Author): 王慧芳;赵婉芳;杜振东;兰洲;何奔腾;
Email:
DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2015.03.034
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