王慧芳;赵婉芳;杜振东;兰洲;何奔腾;

• 1:浙江大学电气工程学院
• 2:浙江省电力公司经济技术研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

电力设备经济寿命的定量预测能为设备运维决策和电网规划提供依据。构建了以年等值成本最低为依据的变压器经济寿命预测模型。为计算模型中的关键参数,将变压器的全寿命数据进行分类和关键数据提取,采用无分布的比例故障率模型和蒙特卡洛模拟法计算得到故障率和停机持续时间的概率分布。然后分析经济要素,在计算电力变压器的年度检修成本、年度中断成本和年度运行成本的基础上,实现了电力变压器经济寿命的定量预测。最后以一台实际的220 k V现役变压器为例,按照所建立的预测模型进行了经济寿命预测的实证研究,结果表明预测模型不仅能有效利用设备寿命数据,而且预测结果合理,对变压器的运维决策,以及未来变电站的规划改造具有指导意义。

关键词(KeyWords)： 电力变压器;经济寿命预测;比例故障率模型;蒙特卡洛模拟

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(51107112)~~

作者(Author): 王慧芳;赵婉芳;杜振东;兰洲;何奔腾;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2015.03.034

参考文献(References)：

• [1]李涛,马薇,黄晓蓓.基于全寿命周期成本理论的变电设备管理[J].电网技术,2008,32(11):50-53.Li Tao,Ma Wei,Huang Xiaobei.Power transformation equipment management based on life cycle cost theory[J].Power System Technology,2008,32(11):50-53(in Chinese).
• [2]于继来,王成福,张博,等.在役电力变压器经济寿命评估[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2010,22(3):86-90.Yu Jilai,Wang Chengfu,Zhang Bo,et al.Economic life evaluation of power transformer in service[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2010,22(3):86-90(in Chinese).
• [3]刘有为,马麟,吴立远,等.电力变压器经济寿命模型及应用实例[J].电网技术,2012,36(10):235-240.Liu Youwei,Ma Lin,Wu Liyuan,et al.Economic life model of power transformer and its application[J].Power System Technology,2012,36(10):235-240(in Chinese).
• [4]柳璐,王和杰,程浩忠,等.基于全寿命周期成本的电力系统经济性评估方法[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(15):45-49.Liu Lu,Wang Hejie,Cheng Haozhong,et al.Economic evaluation of power systems based on life cycle cost[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(15):45-49(in Chinese).
• [5]朱国防,贾湖.工程经济学[M].天津:天津大学出版社,2000.
• [6]Abu-Elanien A B,Salama M M A,Bartnikas R.A techno-economic method for replacing transformers[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2011,26(2):817-828.
• [7]王一,何奔腾,王慧芳.基于全寿命状态的设备可靠性研究[J].电网技术,2011,35(8):207-211.Wang Yi,He Benteng,Wang Huifang.Research of equipment reliability based on life cycle health[J].Power System Technology,2011,35(8):207-211(in Chinese).
• [8]王慧芳,杨荷娟,何奔腾,等.输变电设备状态故障率模型改进分析[J].电力系统自动化,2011,35(6):27-31.Wang Huifang,Yang Hejuan,He Benteng,et al.Improvement of state failure rate model for power transmission and transforming equipment[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2011,35(6):27-31(in Chinese).
• [9]赵婉芳,王慧芳.基于设备完整健康过程的故障率模型参数研究[J].华东电力,2012,40(8):1346-1349.Zhao Wanfang,Wang Huifang.Research of failure rate model parameters based on equipment integral health process[J].East China Electric Power,2012,40(8):1346-1349(in Chinese).
• [10]敖蕾蕾,王慧芳,张弛,等.基于D-S证据理论的输变电设备状态检修多目标群决策[J].电网技术,2014,38(6):1627-1633.Ao Leilei,Wang Huifang,Zhang Chi,et al.Multi-objective and group decision-making research based on D-S evidence theory in condition-based maintenance for transmission and transformation equipment[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(6):1627-1633(in Chinese).
• [11]彭非,王伟.生存分析[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2004:10-25.
• [12]中国电力行业标准.输变电设施可靠性评价规程[S].2003.
• [13]国家电网公司企业标准.油浸式变压器(电抗器)状态评价导则[S].2008.
• [14]中国电力行业标准.电力变压器检修导则[S].2010.
• [15]Cox D R.Regression models and life-tables[M].Breakthroughs in Statistics.Springer New York,1992:527-541.
• [16]暴英凯,王越,唐俊熙,等.序贯蒙特卡洛方法在电力系统可靠性评估中的应用差异分析[J].电网技术,2014,38(5):1189-1195.Bao Yingkai,Wang Yue,Tang Junxi,et al.Analysis on differences of applying sequential monte carlo methods in power grid reliability assessment[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(5):1189-1195(in Chinese).
• [17]Bhuiyan M R,Allan R N.Modelling multistate problems in sequential simulation of power system reliability studies[J].IEE Proc-Gener Transm Distrih,1995,142(4):343-349.
• [18]国家电网公司企业标准.国家电网公司电网检修运维和运营管理成本标准(试行)[S].2009.
• [19]国家电网公司企业标准.国家电网公司资产全寿命周期管理评估指标体系(试行版)[S].2010.
• [20]李蕊,李跃,苏剑,等.配电网重要电力用户停电损失及应急策略[J].电网技术,2011,35(10):170-176.Li Rui,Li Yue,Su Jian,et al.Power supply interruption cost of important power consumers in distribution network and its emergency management[J].Power System Technology,2011,35(10):170-176(in Chinese).
• [21]Zapata C J,Silva S C,Burbano O L.Repair models of power distribution components[C]//Transmission and Distribution Conf and Exposition:Latin America,2008:1-6.