混合混沌理论和关联度的神经网络短期电力预报模型的研究Short-term Load Forecasting Model Based on Chaotic Theory,Correlation And Neural Networks
李如琦;孙艳;孙志媛;
摘要(Abstract):
提出一种将混沌理论、关联度和神经网络相结合的短期负荷预测模型,首先利用混沌理论重构负荷时间序列的相空间吸引子,然后用BP神经网络来拟合空间吸引子的演化,由于使用空间欧氏距离和关联度联合来选取神经网络的训练样本,这样就提高了神经网络对负荷序列混沌特性的联想和泛化推理能力,能够更好的拟合吸引子的演化。实例预测结果表明,本文所提出的预报是有效的、可行的。
关键词(KeyWords): 混沌理论;短期负荷预测;神经网络;欧氏距离;关联度;嵌入维数
基金项目(Foundation):
作者(Author): 李如琦;孙艳;孙志媛;
Email:
DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2006.s2.153
参考文献(References):
- [1]牛东晓、曹树华、赵磊、张文文.电力负荷预测技术及其应用.北京:中国电力出版社,1998.
- [2]王孙安,盛万兴,尤勇.一种新型短期负荷预测模型的研究及应用[J].中国电机工程学报,2002,22(9):15-18.Wang Sunan, Sheng Wanxin, You Yong. The study and application of the electric power system short-term load forecasting using a new model[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2002,22(9): 15-18.
- [3] C.N.LU, H.T.Wu, S.Vemuri, Neural Network Based For Short Term Load Forecasting. IEEE Transaction on power systems, 1993, 8(1):336-342.
- [4] A.G.Bakirtzis, J.B.Theocharis, S.J.Kiartzis, and K.J.Satsios. Short-Term Load Forecasting Using Fuzzy Neural Networks. IEEE Transaction on power systems, 1995, 10(3): 1518-1524.
- [5]吕金虎,陆君安,陈士华编著.混沌时间序列分析及其应用.武汉:武汉大学出版社,2002.
- [6]李天云,刘自发.电力系统负荷的混沌特性及预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2000,20(11):36-40.Li Tianyun, Liu Zifa. The chaotic property of power load and its forecasting[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2000,20(11): 36-40.
- [7]温权,张勇传,程时杰.负荷预报的混沌时间序列分析法[J].电网技术,2001,25(10):13—16.Wen Quan, Zhang Yongchuan, Cbeng Shijie. Chaotic time series analysis to load prediction[J]. Power System Technology, 2001, 25(10): 13-16.
- [8]吕金虎,占勇,陆君安.电力系统短期负荷预测的非线性混沌改进模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2000,20(12):80-83.Lu Jinhu, Zhan Yong, Lu Junan. The non-linear chaotic improved model of the electric power system short-term load forecasting[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2000,20(12): 80-83.
- [9]蒋传文,袁智强,侯志俭等.高嵌入维混沌负荷序列预测方法研究[J].电网技术,2004,28(3):25-28.Jiang Chuanwen, Yuan Zhiqiang,Hou Zhijian, et al. One high embedded dimensions chaotic electric load forecasting method[J]. Power System Technology, 2004,28(3): 25-28.
- [10]杨正瓴,林孔元,余贻鑫.短期负荷预报的“双周期加混沌”法中的子模型优选的理论探讨[J].电网技术,2003,27(5):33—36.Yang Zhengling, Lin Kongyuan, Yu Yixin. Short term load forecasting by synthesizing double periods and chaotic component: optimization by sub-models[J].Power System Technology, 2003, 27(5): 33-36.
- [11]孙雅明,张智晟.相空间重构和混沌神经网络融合的短期负荷预测研究.中国电机工程学报,2004,24(1):44-48.Sun Yarning, Zhang Zhisheng. A new model of STLF based on the fusion of PSRT and chaotic neural networks[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2004,24(1): 44-48.
- [12]张步涵,刘小华,万建平,刘沛,程时杰.基于混沌时间序列的负荷预测及其关键问题的分析.电网技术,2004,28(13):32-49.Zhang Buhan, Liu Xiaohua,Wan Jianping, Liu pei, Cheng Shijie. Load forecasting based on chaotic series and analysis of its key factors[J]. Power System Technology, 2004,28(13): 32-49.
- [13]雷绍兰,孙才新,周湶,张晓星.电力短期负荷的多嵌入维一阶局域预测.电网技术,2005,29(13):45-49.Lei Shaolan, Sun Caixin, Zhou Quan, Zhang Xiaoxing. Shoret-term load forecasting using one-rank local-region method in multi-dimension embedding phase space[J]. Power System Technology, 2005,29(13): 45-49.