史智萍;王智敏;吴玮坪;王旭冉;胡泽春;

• 1:国网冀北电力有限公司经济技术研究院
• 2:清华大学电机工程与应用电子技术系

摘要(Abstract)：

随着风电等出力具有不确定性的可再生能源大规模接入电网,电网规划将面对新的挑战。基于态势感知技术,提出了含高占比可再生能源的水平年电网规划方法。首先,在态势觉察阶段对考虑不确定性的可再生能源出力进行建模和时序出力模拟,并利用序贯蒙特卡洛模拟出机组、线路工作状态时序。其次,在态势理解阶段,利用考虑爬坡约束的多时段直流最优潮流对电网态势进行运行模拟。然后,通过态势呈现和预测阶段所提出的定量指标对规划水平年的电网态势进行展示,并分析电网的缺陷。最后,利用态势利导给出电网规划方案。算例仿真显示,该方法能够有效考虑可再生能源出力的不确定性,并定量给出现有电网运行态势的经济性、可再生能源消纳、线路利用率等指标;利用态势利导提出的电网规划方案能够有效降低电网总成本,提高电网的可再生能源消纳水平。

关键词(KeyWords)： 态势感知;可再生能源发电;不确定性;序贯蒙特卡洛模拟;电网规划

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFB0900501)~~

作者(Author): 史智萍;王智敏;吴玮坪;王旭冉;胡泽春;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2016.2697

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