倪伟;吕林;向月;刘俊勇;黄媛;王鹏飞;

• 1:四川大学电气工程学院
• 2:国网四川省电力公司泸州供电公司
• 3:国网四川省经济技术研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

基于马尔可夫过程蒙特卡洛法针对综合能源系统可靠性水平进行了评估。利用能源集线器建模技术刻画综合能源系统中电、气、冷、热等不同形式能源的耦合关系及其相互转化与协调;采用基于马尔可夫过程的方法对能量转化设备多时段下的状态概率建模,并通过蒙特卡洛模拟法对其进行状态选择,将其状态随机变量纳入能源集线器能量平衡方程中。同时考虑综合能源系统风光资源的随机出力,通过可靠性评价指标,采用马尔可夫过程蒙特卡洛法评估能量转化设备状态变化对系统可靠性的影响,并从电、冷、热绝对供能量、占比率以及重要程度指标来评估不同能量转化设备在系统中的重要程度。算例以某综合能源系统为例,通过上述指标评估了能量转化设备状态变化对系统可靠性的影响,其结果可为能量转化设备在系统中的规划和运行提供参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 综合能源系统;能源集线器;马尔可夫过程;能量转化设备;可靠性评估

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 四川省科技计划项目(2019YFH0171,2019YFG0152);; 国家自然科学基金项目(51807127);; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(YJ201654)~~

作者(Author): 倪伟;吕林;向月;刘俊勇;黄媛;王鹏飞;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2019.0047

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