肖斐;艾芊;

• 1:电力传输与功率变换控制教育部重点实验室(上海交通大学电气工程系)

摘要(Abstract)：

配网运行环境的日益复杂化使电能质量预测的难度不断增大。为解决区域配网的电能质量预测问题,挖掘电力扰动模式,提出一种基于多阶段离散隐马尔科夫模型(discrete hidden markov model,DHMM)的扰动事件预估方法。首先采用数据清洗和离散化技术对天气类型和扰动事件严重程度进行划分;然后通过信息熵相关性分析和时间序列合成的多阶段预处理,提取天气敏感型区域配网的电能质量扰动事件观测序列;最后利用DHMM对观测序列进行训练,实现电力扰动模式提取和扰动事件预估。依据实际城市电网电能质量数据,验证了本文方法的有效性和实用性。相比于传统方法,计及天气因素的DHMM具备更高的电力扰动事件预估准确率。

关键词(KeyWords)： 电能质量;电力扰动模式;离散隐马尔科夫模型;信息熵

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFB0901300);; 国家自然科学基金项目(51577115)~~

作者(Author): 肖斐;艾芊;

Email:

DOI:

参考文献(References)：

• [1]徐文远,雍静.电力扰动数据分析学:电能质量监测数据的新应用[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(19):93-101.Xu Wenyuan,Yong Jing.Power disturbance data analytics:new application of power quality monitoring data[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(19):93-101(in Chinese).
• [2]段斌,陈明杰,李辉,等.基于电能质量态势感知的分布式发电主动运行决策方法[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(21):176-181.Duan Bin,Chen Mingjie,Li Hui,et al.Decision method of proactive operation for distributed generation based on power quality situation awareness[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(21):176-181(in Chinese).
• [3]丁泽俊,刘平,欧阳森,等.电能质量预测与预警机制及其应用[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2015,27(10):87-92.Ding Zejun,Liu Ping,Ouyang Sen,et al.Mechanism of power quality forecast and early warning and their application[J].Proceeding of the CSU-EPSA,2015,27(10):87-92(in Chinese).
• [4]黄建明,瞿合祚,李晓明.基于短时傅里叶变换及其谱峭度的电能质量混合扰动分类[J].电网技术,2016,40(10):3184-3191.Huang Jianming,Qu Hezuo,Li Xiaoming.Classification for hybrid power quality disturbance based on STFT and its spectral kurtosis[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(10):3184-3191(in Chinese).
• [5]韩晓慧,杜松怀,苏娟,等.触电信号暂态特征提取及故障类型识别方法[J].电网技术,2016,40(11):3591-3596.Han Xiaohui,Du Songhuai,Su Juan,et al.Fault transient feature extraction and fault type identification for electrical shock signals[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(11):3591-3596(in Chinese).
• [6]黄南天,张卫辉,蔡国伟,等.采用改进多分辨率快速S变换的电能质量扰动识别[J].电网技术,2015,39(5):1412-1418.Huang Nantian,Zhang Weihui,Cai Guowei,et al.Power quality disturbances classification with improved multiresolution fast S-transform[J].Power System Technology,2015,39(5):1412-1418(in Chinese).
• [7]赵晨雪,陶顺,肖湘宁.基于电能质量检测系统电压暂降信息的故障定位估计方法[J].电网技术,2016,40(2):642-648.Zhao Chenxue,Tao Shun,Xiao Xiangning.Fault location estimation based on voltage sag information of PQMS[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(2):642-648(in Chinese).
• [8]Yuan R F,Ai Q,He X.Research on dynamic load modelling based on power quality monitoring system[J].IET Generation Transmission&Distribution,2013,7(1):46-51.
• [9]付学谦,陈皓勇,刘国特,等.分布式电源电能质量综合评估方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(25):4270-4276.Fu Xueqian,Chen Haoyong,Liu Guote,et al.Power quality comprehensive evaluation method for distributed generation[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(25):4270-4276(in Chinese).
• [10]左伟杰,马钊,周莉梅,等.基于配电网电能质量健康评估策略的分布式光伏接入方法[J].电网技术,2015,39(12):3442-3448.Zuo Weijie,Ma Zhao,Zhou Limei,et al.Grid-connection of distributed photovoltaic generation method based on the power quality health status of distribution system[J].Power System Technology,2015,39(12):3442-3448(in Chinese).
• [11]Holmgren A,Molin C.Using disturbance data to assess vulnerability of electric power delivery systems[J].Journal of Infrastructure Systems,2006,12(4):243-251.
• [12]段瑶,张步涵,刘怡芳.基于快速随机潮流的电力系统安全风险评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(22):3784-3790.Duan Yao,Zhang Buhan,Liu Yifang.Security risk assessment of power system based on fast probabilistic power flow[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(22):3784-3790(in Chinese).
• [13]陈永进,任震,黄雯莹.考虑天气变化的可靠性评估模型与分析[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(21):17-21.Chen Yongjin,Ren Zhen,Huang Wenying.Model and analysis of power system reliability evaluation considering weather change[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2004,28(21):17-21(in Chinese).
• [14]段杰,王秀丽,侯雨伸.基于模糊专家系统的输电线路分段冰风荷载等效停运率模型[J].电工技术学报,2016,31(8):220-228.Duan Jie,Wang Xiuli,Hou Yushen.Piecewise equivalent model of ice disaster impact on outage rate of transmission lines using fuzzy expert system[J].Transaction of China Electrotechnical Society,2016,31(8):220-228(in Chinese).
• [15]鲁宗相,程丽娟,乔颖,等.计及风资源约束的双天气模态海上风电系统可靠性评估[J].电网技术,2015,39(12):3536-3542.Lu Zongxiang,Cheng Lijuan,Qiao Ying,et al.Offshore wind power system reliability evaluation considering wind resource constraints and double weather patterns[J].Power System Technology,2015,39(12):3536-3542(in Chinese).
• [16]Huang Q,Shao L,Li N.Dynamic detection of transmission line outages using hidden markov models[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2016,31(3):2026-2033.
• [17]唐飞,王波,查晓明,等.基于双阶段并行隐马尔科夫模型的电力系统暂态稳定评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2013,33(10):90-97.Tang Fei,Wang Bo,Zha Xiaoming,et al.Power system transient stability assessment based on two-stage parallel hidden markov model[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2013,33(10):90-97(in Chinese).
• [18]莫文雄,许中,肖斐,等.基于随机矩阵理论的电力扰动事件时空关联[J].高电压技术,2017,43(7):2386-2393.Mo Wenxiong,Xu Zhong,Xiao Fei,et al.Research on temporal-spatial correlation of power disturbance events based on random matrix theory[J].High Voltage Engineering,2017,43(7):2386-2393(in Chinese).
• [19]董海艳,贾清泉,王宁,等.复杂电能质量扰动事件区段定位方法研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2017,37(17):4931-4940.Dong Haiyan,Jia Qingquan,Wang Ning,et al.The method for section location of complex power quality disturbance events[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2017,37(17):4931-4940(in Chinese).
• [20]Lin J,Keogh E,Lonardi S,et al.A symbolic representation of time series,with implications for streaming algorithms[C]//ACM SIGMOD Workshop on Research Issues in Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery.ACM.San Diego,CA,USA:2003:2-11.
• [21]谢景辉.隐马尔科夫模型及其在语音处理中的应用[M].武汉:华中理工大学出版社,1995:5-10.
• [22]谢辉春,崔翔,邬雄,等.1000k V特高压交流单回输电线路好天气下无线电干扰的统计分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2016,36(3):861-870.Xie Huichun,Cui Xiang,Wu Xiong,et al.Statistical analysis of 1000k V UHV AC single-circuit transmission line radio interference under good weather condition[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2016,36(3):861-870(in Chinese).
• [23]章登义,欧阳黜霏,吴文李.针对时间序列多步预测的聚类隐马尔科夫模型[J].电子学报,2014,42(12):2359-2364.Zhang Dengyi,Ouyang Chufei,Wu Wenli.Cluster-based hidden markov model in time series multi-step prediction[J].Acta Electronic Sinica,2014,42(12):2359-2364(in Chinese).