基于Kriging模型的综合能源系统规划方法A Planning Method of Integrated Energy System Based on Kriging Model
刘迪;吴俊勇;林凯骏;李德智;龚桃荣;
摘要(Abstract):
综合能源系统将多种能源进行耦合,对电、气、冷、热等多种能量进行多维度的协调管理和分配,是能源互联网在区域内的具体实现。提出了一种基于改进型Kriging模型的综合能源系统规划方法。首先建立了综合能源系统各主要设备的多能流网络模型,结合混沌采样算法构建了一种改进型Kriging模型,通过模型拟合所得到的局部极值点和最速下降点等线索来搜索价值最大的采样点,对原模型进行修正,从而快速准确地得到系统最佳规划方案。通过优化计算可以得到各主要设备的最佳容量配置和运行策略,在满足用户多种能源需求的前提下,最大限度地降低系统投资和用能成本,促进多种能源的高效利用和可持续发展。
关键词(KeyWords): 综合能源系统;Kriging模型;优化规划;运行策略;容量配置
基金项目(Foundation): 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(E18JB00120);; 国家电网公司科技项目(YDB17201700249)~~
作者(Author): 刘迪;吴俊勇;林凯骏;李德智;龚桃荣;
Email:
DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2018.2451
参考文献(References):
- [1]马钊,周孝信,尚宇炜,等.能源互联网概念、关键技术及发展模式探索[J].电网技术,2015,39(11):3014-3022.Ma Zhao,Zhou Xiaoxin,Shang Yuwei,et al.Exploring the concept,key technologies and development model of energy internet[J].Power System Technology,2015,39(11):3014-3022(in Chinese).
- [2]殷爽睿,艾芊,曾顺奇,等.能源互联网多能分布式优化研究挑战与展望[J].电网技术,2018,42(5):1359-1369.Yin Shuangrui,Ai Qian,Zeng Shunqi,et al.Challenges and prospects of multi-energy distributed optimization for energy internet[J].Power System Technology,2018,42(5):1359-1369(in Chinese).
- [3]曾鸣,刘英新,周鹏程,等.综合能源系统建模及效益评价体系综述与展望[J].电网技术,2018,42(6):1697-1708.Zeng Ming,Liu Yingxin,Zhou Pengcheng,et al.Review and prospects of integrated energy system modeling and benefit evaluation[J].Power System Technology,2018,42(6):1697-1708(in Chinese).
- [4]Shengwei M,Rui L,Xiaodai X,et al.Paving the way to smart micro energy grid:concepts,design principles,and engineering practices[J].CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems,2017,3(4):440-449.
- [5]贾宏杰,王丹,徐宪东,等.区域综合能源系统若干问题研究[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(7):198-207.Jia Hongjie,Wang Dan,Xu Xiandong,et al.Research on some key problems related to integrated energy systems[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(7):198-207(in Chinese).
- [6]王锡凡,肖云鹏,王秀丽.新形势下电力系统供需互动问题研究及分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2014,34(29):5018-5028.Wang Xifan,Xiao Yupeng,Wang Xiuli.Study and analysis on supplydemand interaction of power systems under new circumstances[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(29):5018-5028(in Chinese).
- [7]李洋,吴鸣,周海明,等.基于全能流模型的区域多能源系统若干问题探讨[J].电网技术,2015,39(8):2230-2237.Li Yang,Wu Ming,Zhou Haiming,et al.Study on some key problems related to regional multi energy system based on universal flow model[J].Power System Technology,2015,39(8):2230-2237(in Chinese).
- [8]黄武靖,张宁,董瑞彪,等.多能源网络与能量枢纽联合规划方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2018,38(18):5425-5437.Huang Wujing,Zhang Ning,Dong Ruibiao,et al.Coordinated planning of multiple energy networks and energy hubs[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2018,38(18):5425-5437(in Chinese).
- [9]王珺,顾伟,陆帅,等.结合热网模型的多区域综合能源系统协同规划[J].电力系统自动化,2016,40(15):17-24.Wang Jun,Gu Wei,Lu Shuai,et al.Coordinated planning of multidistrict integrated energy system combining heating network model[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2016,40(15):17-24(in Chinese).
- [10]Gao Y Y,Hu X B,Yang W H,et al.Multi-objective bilevel coordinated planning of distributed generation and distribution network frame based on multiscenario technique considering timing characteristics[J].IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy,2017,8(4):1415-1429.
- [11]权超,董晓峰,姜彤.基于CCHP耦合的电力、天然气区域综合能源系统优化规划[J].电网技术,2018,42(8):2456-2466.Quan Chao,Dong Xiaofeng,Jiang Tong.Optimization planning of integrated electricity-gas community energy system based on coupled CCHP[J].Power System Technology,2018,42(8):2456-2466(in Chinese).
- [12]程林,张靖,黄仁乐,等.基于多能互补的综合能源系统多场景规划案例分析[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(6):282-287.Cheng Lin,Zhang Jing,Huang Renle,et al.Case analysis of multiscenario planning based on multi-energy complementation for integrated energy system[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2017,37(6):282-287(in Chinese).
- [13]吴聪,唐巍,白牧可,等.基于能源路由器的用户侧能源互联网规划[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(4):20-28.Wu Cong,Tang Wei,Bai Muke,et al.Energy router based planning of energy internet at user side[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(4):20-28(in Chinese).
- [14]刘维康,王丹,余晓丹,等.考虑电气转换储能和可再生能源集成的微能源网多目标规划[J].电力系统自动化,2018,42(16):11-20.Liu Weikang,Wang Dan,Yu Xiaodan,et al.Multi objective planning of micro energy network considering P2G-based storage system and renewable energy integration[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2018,42(16):11-20(in Chinese).
- [15]郑国太,李昊,赵宝国,等.基于供需能量平衡的用户侧综合能源系统电/热储能设备综合优化配置[J].电力系统保护与控制,2018,46(16):8-18.Zheng Guotai,Li Hao,Zhao Baoguo,et al.Comprehensive optimization of electrical/thermal energy storage equipments for integrated energy system near user side based on energy supply and demand balance[J].Power System Protection and Control,2018,46(16):8-18(in Chinese).
- [16]王旭,别朝红.基于交替方向乘子法的电-气互联系统的分布式协同规划[J].电力系统自动化,2018,42(22):107-116.Wang Xu,Bie Zhaohong.Distributed co-planning of electricity and natural gas systems based on alternating direction method of multipliers[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2018,42(22):107-116(in Chinese).
- [17]杜琳,孙亮,陈厚合.计及电转气规划的综合能源系统运行多指标评价[J].电力自动化设备,2017,37(6):110-116.Du Lin,Sun Liang,Chen Houhe.Multi-index evaluation of integrated energy system with P2G planning[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2017,37(6):110-116(in Chinese).
- [18]Lin K J,Wu J Y,Liu,et al.Energy management of combined cooling,heating and power micro energy grid based on leader-follower game theory[J].Energies,2018(3):647.
- [19]徐捷.基于动态Kriging模型的LHS-CBPSO算法在天线设计中的应用[D].杭州:杭州电子科技大学,2015.
- [20]陈宝林.最优化理论与算法[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2005:281-287.
- [21]肖小清,阚伟民,杨允,等.有蓄能的联供系统超结构优化配置[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(32):8-14.Xiao Xiaoqing,Kan Weimin,Yang Yun,et al.Superstructure-based optimal planning of cogeneration systems with storage[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2012,32(32):8-14(in Chinese).
- [22]毛晓明,陈深,吴杰康,等.分时电价机制下含蓄电池微网的优化调度[J].电网技术,2015,39(5):1192-1197.Mao Xiaoming,Chen Shen,Wu Jiekang,et al.Optimal dispatching of microgrid containing battery under time-of-use price mechanism[J].Power System Technology,2015,39(5):1192-1197(in Chinese).
- [23]陆伟.城市能源环境中分布式供能系统优化配置研究[D].北京:中国科学院研究生院,2007.
- [24]Akomeno O,Ruchi C,Adam B.Distributed energy resource system optimisation using mixed integer linear programming[J].Energy Policy,2013,61(8):249-266.
- [25]Hongwei L,Nalim R,Haldi P A.Thermal-economic optimization of a distributed multi-generation energy system-a case study of Beijing[J].Applied Thermal Engineering,2006,26(7):709-719.
- [26]2018年中国风电弃风率及风机价格走势分析[EB/OL].(2018-06-07).https://www.sohu.com/a/234423048_389140.2018-06-07.
- [27]张文奏,王飞,郑惠明.冰蓄冷空调的投资回收期及能耗分析[J].山西能源与节能,2009,52(1):65-68.Zhang Wenzou,Wang Fei,Zheng Huiming.An analysis of payback period of investment and energy consumption on ice storage airconditioning[J].Shangxi Energy and Conservation,2009,52(1):65-68(in Chinese).