发电系统充裕度与灵活性的随机评估Stochastic Assessment of Adequacy and Flexibility of Power Generation Systems
马静洁;张少华;李雪;周波;
摘要(Abstract):
在含可再生能源的电力系统中,发电容量的灵活性会影响系统的可靠性和可再生能源的消纳,传统的发电容量充裕度指标无法全面反映含可再生能源电力系统的发电容量可靠性。为此,首先提出了电力系统向上/下发电容量不足指标,用于综合描述电力系统的发电容量充裕度和灵活性。其次,采用随机生产模拟技术,给出了向上/下发电容量不足指标的随机评估方法,其中考虑了发电机组的随机强迫停运、最大/小技术出力限制以及不同出力状态下的向上/下爬坡速度,并可适用任意时间尺度下的时序负荷,从而反映了发电机组受负荷需求影响导致的爬坡容量不确定性和由其本身强迫停运导致的不确定性。最后,通过算例分析验证了所提指标和方法的有效性,并定量研究了风电接入比例、时间尺度等因素对向上/下发电容量不足指标的影响。
关键词(KeyWords): 含可再生能源电力系统;发电容量充裕度;发电容量灵活性;向上/下发电容量不足指标;随机生产模拟
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金(61773253)~~
作者(Author): 马静洁;张少华;李雪;周波;
Email:
DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2019.1198
参考文献(References):
- [1]郭永基.电力系统可靠性分析[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2003.
- [2] Zhang S H,Li Y Z.Concise method for evaluating the probability distribution of the marginal cost of power generation[J]. IEE Proceedings-Generation, Transmission and Distribution, 2000,147(3):137-142.
- [3] IRENA.REmap 2030-a renewable energy roadmap[R].Abu Dhabi:International Renewable Energy Agency,2014.
- [4] Luo G,Li Y,Tang W,et al.Wind curtailment of China’s wind power operation:evolution, causes and solutions[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016(53):1190-1201.
- [5]李海,张宁,康重庆,等.可再生能源消纳影响因素的贡献度分析方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2019,39(4):1009-1018.Li Hai,Zhang Ning,Kang Chongqing,et al.Analytics of contribution degree for renewable energy accommodation factors[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2019,39(4):1009-1018(in Chinese).
- [6]李则衡,陈磊,路晓敏,等.基于系统灵活性的可再生能源接纳评估[J].电网技术,2017,41(7):2187-2194.Li Zeheng,Chen Lei,Lu Xiaomin,et al.Assessment of renewable energy accommodation based on system flexibility analysis[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(7):2187-2194(in Chinese).
- [7] Ma J J,Zhang S H,Li X,et al. Integrating base-load cycling capacity margin in generation capacity planning of power systems with high share of renewables[J].Transactions of the Institute of Measurement and Control,2019,DOI:10.1177/0142331219849266.
- [8]肖定垚,王承民,曾平良,等.电力系统灵活性及其评价综述[J].电网技术,2014,38(6):1569-1576.Xiao Dingyao,Wang Chengmin,Zeng Pingliang,et al.A survey on power system flexibility and its evaluations[J]. Power System Technology,2014,38(6):1569-1576(in Chinese).
- [9] Emanuele T,Thomas N,Laura G,et al.Power system flexibility for the energy transition[R].Abu Dhabi:International Renewable Energy Agency,2018.
- [10] Ma J,Vera S,Regine B,et al.Evaluating and planning flexibility in sustainable power systems[J].IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy,2013,4(1):200-209.
- [11] Anupam A T,Le X.A metric and market construct of inter-temporal flexibility in time-coupled economic dispatch[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2016,31(5):3437-3446.
- [12] Nosair H,Bouffard F.Flexibility envelopes for power system operational planning[J].IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy,2015,6(3):800-809.
- [13] Zhao J Y,Zheng T X,Eugene L.A unified framework for defining and measuring flexibility in power system[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2016,31(1):339-347.
- [14]李海波,鲁宗相,乔颖,等.大规模风电并网的电力系统运行灵活性评估[J].电网技术,2015,39(6):1672-1678.Li Haibo,Lu Zongxiang,Qiao Ying,et al.Assessment on operational flexibility of power grid with grid-connected large-scale wind farms[J].Power System Technology,2015,39(6):1672-1678(in Chinese).
- [15] Lannoye E,Flynn D,Mark O’ M.Evaluation of power system flexibility[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2012,27(2):922-931.
- [16] Lannoye E,Flynn D,Mark O’ M.Transmission,variable generation,and power system flexibility[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2015,30(1):57-66.
- [17]鲁宗相,李海波,乔颖.高比例可再生能源并网的电力系统灵活性评价与平衡机理[J].中国电机工程学报,2017,37(1):9-19.Lu Zongxiang,Li Haibo,Qiao Ying.Flexibility evaluation and supply/demand balance principle of power system with high penetration renewable electricity[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2017,37(1):9-19(in Chinese).
- [18] Lu Z X,Li H B,Qiao Y.Probabilistic flexibility evaluation for power system planning considering its association with renewable power curtailment[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2018,33(3):3285-3295.
- [19]国家能源局.2017年全国电力可靠性年度报告[R].北京:国家能源局,2018.
- [20]张宏宇,印永华,申洪,等.大规模风电接入后的系统调峰充裕性评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(22):26-31.Zhang Hongyu,Yin Yonghua,Shen Hong,et al.Peak-load regulating adequacy evaluation associated with large-scale wind power integration[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2011,31(22):26-31(in Chinese).
- [21]王晓海,乔颖,鲁宗相,等.供暖季风电电量消纳能力的评估新方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(9):2112-2119.Wang Xiaohai,Qiao Ying,Lu Zongxiang,et al.A novel method to assess wind energy usage in the heat-supplied season[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(9):2112-2119(in Chinese).
- [22] Sutanto D,Outhred H R,Lee Y B.Probabilistic power system production cost and reliability calculation by the Z-transform method[J].IEEE Transactions on Energy Conversion,1989,4(4):559-565.
- [23]孙伟卿,李恒,杜习周,等.基于有效容量分布的互联系统风电消纳能力评估[J].电网技术,2019,43(9):3321-3327.Sun Weiqing,Li Heng,Du Xizhou,et al.Assessment of wind power integration based on available capacity distribution in interconnected system[J].Power System Technology,2019,43(9):3321-3327(in Chinese).
- [24]苏鹏,刘天琪,李兴源.含风电的系统最优旋转备用的确定[J].电网技术,2010,34(12):158-162.Su Peng,Liu Tianqi,Li Xingyuan.Determination of optimal spinning reserve of power grid containing wind[J].Power System Technology,2010,34(12):158-162(in Chinese).