基于模糊C均值聚类的分布式电源集群并网逆变器输出功率置信区间估计方法Estimation Method of DG Clusters Grid-connected Inverter's Output Power Confidence Interval Based on Fuzzy C-means Algorithm
孙丽敬;盛万兴;吴鸣;吕志鹏;李蕊;李冬森;李运兵;
摘要(Abstract):
为了提高多分布式电源仿真建模的精度,降低仿真模型与物理设备的运行误差,提出基于模糊C均值聚类的分布式电源并网逆变器输出功率置信区间估计方法。首先,根据DG的电压电流输入输出关系建立同类型DG的统一模型,采用粒子群算法进行参数辨识,得到DG输出功率偏差与物理系统同型设备运行参数的关系特性;其次,采用模糊C均值聚类方法,对DG集群进行分类,并将输出功率偏差划分成若干个子集;最后,采用概率分析方法得到输出功率偏差对应各子集的概率密度函数,并对偏差进行概率置信区间预测,根据预测结果通过物理系统同型设备输出特征修正仿真模型运行行为。采用实际运行算例验证,结果表明该方法快速准确修正了仿真模型与物理模型的运行误差。
关键词(KeyWords): 分布式电源集群;清洁能源;仿真建模;模糊C均值聚类;置信区间
基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划资助(2016YFB0900400)(分布式可再生能源发电集群并网消纳关键技术及示范应用)~~
作者(Author): 孙丽敬;盛万兴;吴鸣;吕志鹏;李蕊;李冬森;李运兵;
Email:
DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2018.2869
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