孙丽敬;盛万兴;吴鸣;吕志鹏;李蕊;李冬森;李运兵;

• 1:中国电力科学研究院有限公司
• 2:国网安徽省电力有限公司金寨县供电公司

摘要(Abstract)：

为了提高多分布式电源仿真建模的精度,降低仿真模型与物理设备的运行误差,提出基于模糊C均值聚类的分布式电源并网逆变器输出功率置信区间估计方法。首先,根据DG的电压电流输入输出关系建立同类型DG的统一模型,采用粒子群算法进行参数辨识,得到DG输出功率偏差与物理系统同型设备运行参数的关系特性;其次,采用模糊C均值聚类方法,对DG集群进行分类,并将输出功率偏差划分成若干个子集;最后,采用概率分析方法得到输出功率偏差对应各子集的概率密度函数,并对偏差进行概率置信区间预测,根据预测结果通过物理系统同型设备输出特征修正仿真模型运行行为。采用实际运行算例验证,结果表明该方法快速准确修正了仿真模型与物理模型的运行误差。

关键词(KeyWords)： 分布式电源集群;清洁能源;仿真建模;模糊C均值聚类;置信区间

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划资助(2016YFB0900400)(分布式可再生能源发电集群并网消纳关键技术及示范应用)~~

作者(Author): 孙丽敬;盛万兴;吴鸣;吕志鹏;李蕊;李冬森;李运兵;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2018.2869

参考文献(References)：

• [1]施贵荣,孙荣富,徐海翔,等.大规模集群可再生能源有功分层协调控制策略[J].电网技术,2018,42(7):2160-2167.Shi Guirong,Sun Rongfu,Xu Haixiang,et al.Active power stratification coordinated control strategy for large-scale cluster renewable energy[J].Power System Technology,2018,42(7):2160-2167(in Chinese).
• [2]甘磊,谷纪亭,钟宇军,等.考虑多形态hl歇性电源集中接入的输电网随机双层规划方法[J].电网技术,2016,40(10):3125-3131.Gan Lei,Gu Jiting,Zhong Yujun,et al.Bi-level stochastic planning method of transmission networks with multiple centralized intermittent generations[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(10):3125-3131(in Chinese).
• [3]Ebrahimi F M,Khayatiyan A,Farjah E.A novel optimizing power control strategy for centralized wind farm control system[J].Renewable Energy,2016(86):399-408.
• [4]王魁,张步涵,闫大威,等.含大规模风电的电力系统多时间尺度滚动协调调度方法研究[J].电网技术,2014,38(9):2434-2440.Wang Kui,Zhang Buhan,Yan Dawei,et al.A multi-time scale rolling coordination scheduling method for power grid integrated with large scale wind farm[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(9):2434-2440(in Chinese).
• [5]沈方,杨博,韩震焘,等.风力发电机输出功率条件子集区间估计方法[J].电机与控制应用,2018,45(8):104-109.Shen Fang,Yang Bo,Han Zhentao,et al.Conditional subset interval estimation method for wind turbine output power[J].Electrical and Control Application,2018,45(8):104-109(in Chinese).
• [6]马亚辉.含分布式电源的综合负荷建模方法研究[D].长沙:湖南大学,2013.
• [7]Makarov Y V,Du P,Kintner-Meyer M C W,et al.Sizing energy storage to accommodate high penetration of variable energy resources[J].IEEE Transactions on Sustainable Energy,2012,3(1):34-40.
• [8]叶林,张慈杭,汤涌,等.多时空尺度协调的风电集群有功分层预测控制方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2018,38(13):3767-3780,4018.Ye Lin,Zhang Cihang,Tang Yong,et al.Active power stratification predictive control approach for wind power cluster with multiple temporal and spatial scale coordination[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2018,38(13):3767-3780,4018(in Chinese).
• [9]叶林,李智,汤涌,等.基于随机预测控制理论和功率波动相关性的风电集群优化调度[J].中国电机工程学报,2018,38(11):3172-3183.Ye Lin,Li Zhi,Tang Yong,et al.Optimal dispatch of system integrated wind farm clusters based on stochastic model predictive control considering temporal correlation of wind power[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2018,38(11):3172-3183(in Chinese).
• [10]高亚静,孙永健,杨文海,等.基于非参数核密度估计和改进谱多流形聚类的负荷曲线分类研究[J].电网技术,2018,42(5):1605-1612.Gao Yajing,Sun Yongjian,Yang Wenhai,et al.Study on load curve’s classification based on nonparametric kernel density estimation and improved spectral multi-manifold clustering[J].Power System Technology,2018,42(5):1605-1612(in Chinese).
• [11]Wang L,Lin Y H.Dynamic stability analyses of a photovoltaic array connected to a large utility grid[C]//Power Engineering Society Winter Meeting.Singapore:IEEE Power Engineering Society,2000:476-480.
• [12]李乃永,梁军,赵义术.并网光伏电站的动态建模与稳定性研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(10):12-18.Li Naiyong,Liang Jun,Zhao Yishu.Research on dynamic modeling and stability of grid-connected photovoltaic power station[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2011,31(10):12-18(in Chinese).
• [13]吴红斌,何叶,赵波,等.基于改进K-mean聚类算法的风电场动态等值[J].太阳能学报,2018,39(11):3232-3237.Wu Hongbin,He Ye,Zhao Bo,et al.Research on dynamic equivalent of wind farm based on improved K-means clustering algorithm[J].Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica,2018,39(11):3232-3237(in Chinese).
• [14]姜宽,王慧芳,林达,等.面向逆变器型分布式电源的快速建模与仿真方法[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(12):13-19.Jiang Kuan,Wang Huifang,Lin Da,et al.Rapid modeling and simulation method for inverter-interfaced distributed generators[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(12):13-19(in Chinese).
• [15]Jung J H,Ryu M H,Kim J H,et al.Power hardware-in-the-loop simulation of single crystalline photovoltaic panel using real-time simulation techniques[C]//2012 IEEE 7th International Power Electronics and Motion Control Conference.Asia,IPEMC:IEEE,2012:1418-1422.
• [16]姚宏民,杜欣慧,李廷钧,等.光伏高渗透率下配网消纳能力模拟及电压控制策略研究[J].电网技术,2018,43(2):462-469.Yao Hongmin,Du Xinhui,Li Tingjun,et al.Simulation of distribution capacity and voltage control strategy of distribution network under high permeability of photovoltaic[J].Power System Technology,2018,43(2):462-469(in Chinese).
• [17]陈继开,董飞飞,王振浩,等.适用于功率波动的多端柔性直流系统改进下垂控制方法[J].电网技术,2018,42(11):3708-3717.Chen Jikai,Dong Feifei,Wang Zhenhao,et al.Research on improved droop control method of multi-terminal MMC-HVDC system suitable for power fluctuation[J].Power System Technology,2018,42(11):3708-3717(in Chinese).
• [18]陈鹏远,黎灿兵,周斌,等.异步互联电网VSC-HVDC紧急功率支援与动态区域控制偏差协调控制策略[J/OL].电工技术学报,2 0 1 8:1-1 0(2 0 1 8-0 9-2 0).h t t p://k n s.c n k i.n e t/k c m s/detail/11.2188.TM.20180917.1723.001.html.Chen Pengyuan,Li Canbing,Zhou Bin,et al.VSC-HVDC emergency power support and dynamic area control error coordinated control strategy for improving the stability of asynchronous interconnected power grids[J/OL].Transactions of Electrotechnical Engineering,2018:1-10(2018-09-20).http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/11.2188.TM.20180917.1723.001.html(in Chinese).
• [19]王星华,陈卓优,彭显刚.一种基于双层聚类分析的负荷形态组合识别方法[J].电网技术,2016,40(5):1495-1501.Wang Xinghua,Chen Zhuoyou,Peng Xiangang.A new combinational electrical load analysis method based on bilayer clustering analysis[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(5):1495-1501(in Chinese).
• [20]张晓辉,彦鹏达,钟嘉庆,等.考虑环境成本和需求侧管理项目的电源规划模型[J].电网技术.2015,39(10):2809-2814.Zhang Xiaohui,Yan Pengda,Zhong Jiaqing,et al.Mgneration expansion planning model incorporating environment cost and demands side manamgment programs[J].Power System Technology,2015,39(10):2809-2814(in Chinese).
• [21]Zhou F,Torre F L.Generalized canonical time warping[J].IEEETransactions on Pattern Analysis&Machine Intelligence,2016,38(2):279-294.
• [22]Primadianto A,Lu C N.A review on distribution system state estimation[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2017,32(5):3875-3883.
• [23]Huang S C,Lu C N,Lo Y L.Evaluation of AMI and SCADA data synergy for distribution feeder modeling[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2015,6(4):1639-1647.
• [24]贾文昭,康重庆,李丹,等.基于日前风功率预测的风电消纳能力评估方法[J].电网技术,2012,36(8):69-75.Jia Wenzhao,Kang Chongqing,Li Dan,et al.Evaluation on capability of wind power accommodation based on its day-ahead forecasting[J].Power System Technology,2012,36(8):69-75(in Chinese).
• [25]张丽艳,陈映月,韩正庆.基于改进聚类方式的牵引负荷分类方法研究[J/OL].西南交通大学学报,2018:1-7(2018-11-13).http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/51.1277.U.20181113.2318.010.html.Zhang Liyan,Chen Yingyue,Han Zhengqing.Research on traction load classification method based on improved clustering method[J].Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University,2018:1-7(2018-11-13).http://kns.cnki.net/kcms/detail/51.1277.U.20181113.2318.010.html(in Chinese).
• [26]周楠,樊玮,刘念,等.基于需求响应的光伏微网储能系统多目标容量优化配置[J].电网技术,2016,40(12):3405-3411.Zhou Nan,Fan Wei,Liu Nian,et al.Battery storage multi-objective optimization for capacity configuration of PV based microgrid considering demand response[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(12):3405-3411(in Chinese).
• [27]厉伟,颜宁,张博,等.基于情景分析法风电场中储能系统经济调度[J].电工电能新技术,2018,37(2):47-52.Li Wei,Yan Ning,Zhang Bo,et al.Economic dispatch of energy storage system in wind farm based on scenario analysis method[J].New Technology of Electrical Engineering and Energy,2018,37(2):47-52(in Chinese).
• [28]钟晶亮,甘飞,邓彤天.基于敏感度分析的汽轮机及调节系统参数辨识[J].汽轮机技术,2018,60(2):111-115.Zhong Jingliang,Gan Fei,Deng Tongtian.Parameter identification of steam turbine and regulation system based on sensitivity analysis[J].Technology of Turbine,2018,60(2):111-115(in Chinese).
• [29]马亚辉.含分布式电源的综合负荷建模方法研究[D].长沙:湖南大学,2013.