王成山,谢莹华

• 1:天津大学电气与自动化工程学院
• 2:天津大学电气与自动化工程学院 天津市南开区300072
• 3:天津市南开区300072

摘要(Abstract)：

提出了一种双层同构贝叶斯网络模型进行配电网的可靠性评估和再评估。在进行馈线分区的基础上,结合区域故障模式影响分析(Failure-Mode-and-Effect Analysis,FMEA)构成贝叶斯网络。通过贝叶斯网络的正向推理评估负荷点及配电网的可靠性,求取可靠性指标。通过网络的反向推理进行假设分析,识别网络中的薄弱环节,采用双层结构分别计算停运概率指标和停运频率指标。该方法可以处理带子馈线的复杂配电网可靠性评估问题,能够考虑自动装置不可靠动作、备用电源、线路计划检修等情况。算例分析结果表明了该方法的有效性。

关键词(KeyWords)： 电力系统;配电网;可靠性评估;贝叶斯网络;馈线分区

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation):

作者(Author): 王成山,谢莹华

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