基于补偿模糊神经网络和线性模型的短期电力负荷预测Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Compensated Fuzzy Neural Networks and Linear Models
耿伟华;孙衢;李兴源;
摘要(Abstract):
在考虑了气象因素对负荷的影响的基础上,提出了一种补偿模糊神经网络和线性模型相结合的短期电力负荷预测新方法。首先采用补偿模糊神经网络求出峰、谷负荷,然后利用线性外推法求出未来1日中24个时刻的负荷值。该方法具有神经网络和线性模型的优点,实例仿真结果表明其具有较快的收敛速度、较高的预测精度和较强的鲁棒性。
关键词(KeyWords): 短期负荷预测;补偿模糊神经网络;模糊神经网络;隶属函数;线性外推法
基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2004CB217907);; 国家自然科学基金资助项目(50595412)~~
作者(Author): 耿伟华;孙衢;李兴源;
Email:
DOI:
参考文献(References):
- [1]牛东晓,曹树华,赵磊,等.电力负荷预测技术及其应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社,1999.
- [2]Chen J F,Wang W M,Huang C M.Analysis of an adaptive time-series autoregressive moving-average(ARMA)model for short-term load forecasting[J].Electric Power Systems Research,1995,34(3):187-196.
- [3]谢宏,陈志业,牛东晓,等.基于小波分解与气象因素影响的电力系统日负荷预测模型研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2001,21(5):5-10.Xie Hong,Chen Zhiye,Niu Dongxiao,et al.The research of daily load forecasting model based on wavelet decomposing and climate influencing[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2001,21(5):5-10(in Chinese).
- [4]邰能灵,侯志俭,李涛,等.基于小波分析的电力系统短期负荷预测方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2003,23(1):45-50.Tai Nengling,Hou Zhijian,Li Tao,et al.New principle based on wavelet transform for power system short-term load forecasting[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2003,23(1):45-50(in Chinese).
- [5]Rahaman S,Bhatnagar R.An expert system based algorithm for short term load forecasting[J].IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1988,3(2):392-399.
- [6]Hiroyuki Mori,Atsushi Yuihara.Deterministic annealing clustering for ANN-based short-term load forecasting[J].IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2001,16(3):545-551.
- [7]Ling S H,Leung F H F,Lam H K.Short-term electric load forecasting based on a neural fuzzy network[J].IEEE Trans on Industial Electronics,2003,50(6):1305-1316.
- [8]马文晓,白晓民,沐连顺.基于人工神经网络和模糊推理的短期负荷预测方法[J].电网技术,2003,27(5):29-32.Ma Wenxiao,Bai Xiaomin,Mu Lianshun.Short term load forecasting using artificial neural network and fuzzy inference[J].Power System Technology,2003,27(5):29-32(in Chinese).
- [9]姜勇.基于模糊聚类的神经网络短期负荷预测方法[J].电网技术,2003,27(2):45-49.Jiang Yong.Short-term load forecasting using a neural network basedon fuzzy clustering[J].Power System Technology,2003,27(2):45-49(in Chinese).
- [10]赵剑剑,张步涵,程时杰,等.一种基于径向基函数的短期负荷预测方法[J].电网技术,2003,27(6):22-25.Zhao Jianjian,Zhang Buhan,Cheng Shijie,et al.A deterministic anneal clustering based short-term load forecasting method with radial basis function network[J].Power System Technology,2003,27(6):22-25(in Chinese).
- [11]冉启文,单永正,王骐,等.电力系统短期负荷预报的小波?神经网络?PARIMA方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2003,23(3):38-42.Ran Qiwen,Shan Yongzheng,Wang Qi,et al.Wavelet-neural networks-PARIMA method for power system short term load forecasting[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2003,23(3):38-42(in Chinese).
- [12]谢开贵,李春燕,俞集辉.基于遗传算法的短期组合预测模型[J].电网技术,2001,25(8):20-23.Xie Kaigui,Li Chunyan,Yu Jihui.Genetic algorithm based combination forecasting model for short term load[J].Power System Technology,2001,25(8):20-23(in Chinese).
- [13]史德明,李林川,宋建文.基于灰色预测和神经网络的电力系统负荷预测[J].电网技术,2001,25(12):14-17.Shi Deming,Li Linchuan,Song Jianwen.Power system load forecasting based upon combination of gray forecast and artificial neural network[J].Power System Technology,2001,25(12):14-17(in Chinese).
- [14]李林川,吕冬,武文杰.一种简化的电力系统负荷线性组合预测法[J].电网技术,2002,26(10):10-13.Li Linchuan,LüDong,Wu Wenjie.A linear combination based simplified load forecasting method for power system[J].Power System Technology,2002,26(10):10-13(in Chinese).
- [15]李金颖,牛东晓.非线性季节型电力负荷灰色组合预测研究[J].电网技术,2003,27(25):26-28.Li Jinying,Niu Dongxiao.Study on gray combined forecasting of nonlinear sersonal power load[J].Power System Technology,2003,27(25):26-28(in Chinese).
- [16]刘为,顾洁.电力系统短期负荷预测的高木?关野模型研究[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2003,15:45-48.Liu Wei,Gu Jie.Study on the TAKAJI-SUGENO model of short-term load forecasting for power system[J].Proceedings of the EPSA,2003,15:45-48(in Chinese).
- [17]邰能灵,侯志俭.小波模糊神经网络在电力系统短期负荷预测中的应用[J].中国电机工程学报,2004,24(1):24-29.Tai Nengling,Hou Zhijian.New short-term load forecasting principle with the wavelet transform fuzzy neural network for the power systems[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2004,24(1):24-29(in Chinese).
- [18]闻新,周露,李翔,等.MATLAB神经网络仿真与应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2003.
- [19]Liang R H,Cheng C C.Combined regression-fuzzy approach for short-term load forecasting[J].IEE Proc.-Gener.Transm.Distrib,2000,147(4):261-266.