基于功率谱分解和实时气象因素的短期负荷预测Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Power Spectrum Decomposition and Hourly Weather Factors
张凯;姚建刚;李伟;贺辉;
摘要(Abstract)：
提出了基于功率谱分解和实时气象因素的短期负荷预测方法,采用快速傅里叶变换(fast Fourier transform,FFT)对负荷序列进行变换得到功率谱,依据变换结果分析功率谱得出负荷基频、低频和高频分量的频率范围,采用有限脉冲响应(finite impulse response,FIR)滤波器从负荷中分离出各个负荷分量。分析各个负荷分量的特点,针对各个负荷分量分别设计预测模型,对基频分量采用Elman回归神经网络进行预测,这部分较好地反映出基频分量的时间序列特性;对低频和高频分量分别采用自适应线性回归神经网络进行预测,在对这部分分量的预测中重点引入实时气象因素,以利用最新的气象信息提高预测精度。通过在某地区的实际应用证明了所提出方法的有效性。
关键词(KeyWords)： 谱分解;实时气象因素;短期负荷预测;人工神经网络;电力系统
基金项目(Foundation):
作者(Author): 张凯;姚建刚;李伟;贺辉;
Email:
DOI:
参考文献(References)：
- [1]康重庆,夏清,张伯明.电力系统负荷预测研究综述及发展方向探讨[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(17):1-11.Kang Chongqing,Xia Qing,Zhang Boming.Review of power system load forecasting and its development[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2004,28(17):1-11(in Chinese).
- [2]康重庆,夏清,胡左浩.电力市场预测问题的新内涵[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(18):1-6.Kang Chongqing,Xia Qing,Hu Zuohao.New connotation of forecasting issues in electricity market[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2004,28(18):1-6(in Chinese).
- [3]康重庆,周安石,王鹏,等.短期负荷预测中实时气象要素的影响分析及其处理策略[J].电网技术,2006,30(7):5-10.Kang Chongqing,Zhou Anshi,Wang Peng,et al.Impact analysis of hourly weather factors in short-term load forecasting and its processing strategy[J].Power System Technology,2006,30(7):5-10(in Chinese).
- [4]周晖,钮文洁,刘万添.关于夏季单位温升负荷效应回归模型的研究[J].电网技术,2003,27(3):46-49.Zhou Hui,Niu Wenjie,Liu Wantian.Research on regression of load effect on specific temperature rise in summer[J].Power System Technology,2003,27(3):46-49(in Chinese).
- [5]张宏刚,蒋传文,王承民.基于气象因素粗糙集理论的负荷预测方法[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2004,16(4):59-62.Zhang Honggang,Jiang Chuanwen,Wang Chengmin.Load forecasting based on rough set of weather factors[J].Proceeding of the EPSA,2004,16(4):59-62(in Chinese).
- [6]陆海峰,单渊达.电力系统的递推自适应短期负荷预报[J].电网技术,2000,24(3):28-31.Lu Haifeng,Shan Yuanda.Recursive and adaptive super-short term load forecast method[J].Power System Technology,2000,24(3):28-31(in Chinese).
- [7]姜常珍.信号分析与处理[M].天津:天津大学出版社,2000.
- [8]常学将,陈敏,王明生.时间序列分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1993.
- [9]谢宏,陈志业,牛东晓,等.基于小波分解与气象因素影响的电力系统日负荷预测模型研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2001,21(5):5-10.Xie Hong,Chen Zhiye,Niu Dongxiao,et al.The research of daily load forecasting model based on wavelet decomposing and climatic influence[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2001,21(5):5-10(in Chinese).
- [10]金海峰,熊信艮,吴耀武.基于相似性原理的短期负荷预测方法[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(23):45-48.Jin Haifeng,Xiong Xinyin,Wu Yaowu.Short-term load forecasting based on analogous theory[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2001,25(23):45-48(in Chinese).
- [11]朱晟,蒋传文,侯志俭.基于气象因子的Elman神经网络短期负荷预测[J].电力系统自动化学报,2005,17(1):23-26.Zhu Sheng,Jiang Chuanwen,Hou Zhijian.Application of a weather component based Elman neural network to short-term load forecasting[J].Proceeding of the EPSA,2005,17(1):23-26(in Chinese).
- [12]贺蓉,曾刚,姚建刚,等.天气敏感神经网络在地区电网短期负荷预测中的应用[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(17):32-35.He Rong,Zeng Gang,Yao Jiangang,et al.Application of weather sensitivity neural network model in short-term load forecasting on area[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2001,25(17):32-35(in Chinese).
- [13]姚李孝,宋玲芳,李庆宇.基于模糊聚类分析和BP网络的电力系统短期负荷预测[J].电网技术,2005,29(1):20-23.Yao Lixiao,Song Lingfang,Li Qingyu.Power system short-term load forecasting based on fuzzy clustering analysis and BP neural network[J].Power System Technology,2005,29(1):20-23(in Chinese).
- [14]穆钢,候凯元,杨右虹,等.一种内蕴误差评价的负荷预报方法[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(22):37-40.Mu Gang,Hou Kaiyuan,Yang Youhong,et al.Forecasting method based on intrinsic error evaluation[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2001,25(22):37-40(in Chinese).
- [15]穆钢,候凯元,杨右虹,等.负荷预报中负荷规律性评价方法的研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2001,21(10):96-101.Mu Gang,Hou Kaiyuan,Yang Youhong,et al.Studies on load regularity evaluation method for load forecasting[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2001,21(10):96-101(in Chinese).
- [16]Yu Z.A temperature match based optimization method for daily load prediction considering DLC effect[J].IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1996,11(2):728-733.
- [17]陈允平,王旭蕊,韩宝亮.人工神经网络原理及其应用[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2002.