基于组合权重的蒙特卡洛电压暂降评估方法A Monte Carlo Assessment Method of Voltage Sags Based on Combination Weight
曾江;蔡东阳;
摘要(Abstract):
针对电网中监测装置配备滞后、电压暂降水平亟待评估的问题,提出一种基于组合权重的蒙特卡洛评估方法。评估工作中,着重研究电网中线路短路故障对节点电压的影响。首先在考虑数据易获取性的基础上,构建涵盖线路自身属性及环境因素的故障概率评估体系,结合G1法和熵权法评估线路故障概率。该体系相比传统的评估体系,更加接近电网的真实工况,能够准确反映电网中短路故障的分布情况。运用该评估体系,构建故障数学模型,开发适用的BPA程序计算接口,可以对电网进行蒙特卡洛模拟仿真。研究结果对电网的改造和缓解装置的配备有指导性作用。最后以某特大城市的220 kV电网为例进行电压暂降评估,验证了方法的有效性。
关键词(KeyWords): 电压暂降;组合权重;概率评估;电能质量
基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(51177051)~~
作者(Author): 曾江;蔡东阳;
Email:
DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2016.05.026
参考文献(References):
- [1]GB/T 30137—2013.电能质量:电压暂降与短时中断[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2013.
- [2]邱玉涛,肖先勇,赵恒,等.满足电压暂降与故障位置均可观的监测装置二阶段配置[J].电网技术,2014,38(11):3166-3172.Qiu Yutao,Xiao Xianyong,Zhao Heng,et al.A placement approach of two-stage monitors making both voltage sag and fault position observable[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(11):3166-3172(in Chinese).
- [3]陈伟,赵锦苹.复杂电网中电压跌落凹陷域的仿真分析[J].电网技术,2014,38(5):1322-1327.Chen Wei,Zhao Jinping.Simulation analysis on vulnerability area of voltage dip in complex power grid[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(5):1322-1327(in Chinese).
- [4]刘旭娜,肖先勇,刘阳,等.工业过程电压暂降风险等级层次化多级模糊综合评估[J].电网技术,2014,38(7):1984-1988.Liu Xuna,Xiao Xianyong,Liu Yang,et al.Hierarchical multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation on risk level of voltage sag during industrial process[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(7):1984-1988(in Chinese).
- [5]王志军,朱珂,王小宇.感应电动机对称电压跌落临界清除时间解析算法[J].电网技术,2014,38(2):509-514.Wang Zhijun,Zhu Ke,Wang Xiaoyu.An analytical method to calculate critical clearance time of symmetrical voltage sags for induction motors[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(2):509-514(in Chinese).
- [6]肖湘宁.电能质量分析与控制[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2004:126.
- [7]欧阳森,李奇,石怡理,等.考虑模糊聚类特性的电能质量预警方法及其应用[J].电网技术,2014,38(6):1712-1716.Ouyang Sen,Li Qi,Shi Yili,et al.Early-warning method of power quality considering the characteristics of fuzzy clustering and its application[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(6):1712-1716(in Chinese).
- [8]于浩明,黄纯,江亚群,等.采用快速原子分解的电能质量扰动信号参数辨识[J].电网技术,2014,38(8):2237-2243.Yu Haoming,Huang Chun,Jiang Yaqun,et al.Parameter identification of power quality disturbance signal using fast atomic decomposition method[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(8):2237-2243(in Chinese).
- [9]汪洋,肖先勇,刘阳,等.短时电能质量复合扰动分类特征选取与马氏距离分类法[J].电网技术,2014,38(4):1064-1069.Wang Yang,Xiao Xianyong,Liu Yang,et al.Classifying features selection and classification based on mahalanobis distance for complex short time power quality disturbances[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(4):1064-1069(in Chinese).
- [10]常学飞,田立军,秦英林.一种精确确定电压暂降凹陷域的算法[J].电力自动化设备,2011,31(4):64-68.Chang Xuefei,Tian Lijun,Qin Yinglin.Method to accurately determine vulnerable areas of voltage sag[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2011,31(4):64-68(in Chinese).
- [11]王玲,赵艳军,徐柏榆,等.一种基于插值故障点法的电压凹陷域分析算法[J].华北电力大学学报(自然科学版),2014,41(3):36-41,69.Wang Ling,Zhao Yanjun,Xu Baiyu,et al.An algorithm to determine vulnerable areas of voltage sag based on interpolated fault positions method[J].Journal of North China Electric Power University,2014,41(3):36-41,69(in Chinese).
- [12]李妍,余欣梅,熊信艮,等.电力系统电压暂降分析计算方法综述[J].电网技术,2004,28(14):74-78.Li Yan,Yu Xinmei,Xiong Xingen,et al.A survey on calculation and analysis methods of voltage sag[J].Power System Technology,2004,28(14):74-78(in Chinese).
- [13]许丹.基于蒙特卡洛法的电压骤降评估方法的研究[D].淄博:山东理工大学,2012.
- [14]易杨,张尧,钟庆.基于蒙特卡罗方法的大型电力用户电压暂降评估[J].电网技术,2008,32(6):57-60,75.Yi Yang,Zhang Yao,Zhong Qing.Assessment of voltage sags in large power consumer based on Monte Carlo method[J].Power System Technology,2008,32(6):57-60,75(in Chinese).
- [15]Martinez J A.,Martin-Arnedo J.Voltage sag stochastic prediction using an electromagnetic transients program[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2004,19(10):1975-1982.
- [16]Li Wenyuan.Risk assessment of power systems:models,methods and applications[M].New York,USA:John Wiley&Sons,2005:16-18.
- [17]殷超,谢慧.电力系统输电线路故障概率模型分析[J].电子测试,2013,18(18):41-42.Yin Chao,Xie Hui.Study of failure rate model of power transmission line[J].Electronic Test,2013,18(18):41-42(in Chinese).
- [18]GB/T 16434—1996.高压架空线路和发、变电所环境污区分级及外绝缘选择标准[S].北京:中国标准出版社:1996.
- [19]郭亚军.综合评价理论、方法及应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2007:130-137.
- [20]沈阳武,彭晓涛,施通勤,等.基于最优组合权重的电能质量灰色综合评价方法[J].电力系统自动化,2012,36(10):67-73.Shen Yangwu,Peng Xiaotao,Shi Tongqin,et al.A grey comprehensive evaluation method of power quality based on optimal combination weight[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2012,36(10):67-73(in Chinese).
- [21]李军,李继光,姚建刚,等.属性识别和G1-熵权法在电能质量评价中的应用[J].电网技术,2009,33(14):56-61.Li Jun,Li Jiguang,Yao Jiangang,et al.Application of attribute recognition and G1-Entropy method in evaluation of power quality[J].Power System Technology,2009,33(14):56-61(in Chinese).
- [22]周翔,王丰华,黄荣辉,等.考虑系统与敏感设备的变电站电压暂降综合评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(8):1940-1946.Zhou Xiang,Wang Fenghua,Huang Ronghui,et al.Assessment of voltage sags in substations based on power system and equipment sensitivity analysis[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(8):1940-1946(in Chinese).
- [23]欧阳森,杨家豪,耿红杰,等.面向台区管理的台区状态综合评价方法及其应用[J].电力系统自化,2015,39(11):187-192,207.Ouyang Sen,Yang Jiahao,Geng Hongjie,et al.Comprehensive evaluation method of transformer area state oriented to transformer area management and its application[J].Automation of Electric Power System,2015,39(11):187-192,207(in Chinese).
- [24]罗毅,李昱龙.基于熵权法和灰色关联分析法的输电网规划方案综合决策[J].电网技术,2013,37(1):77-81.Luo Yi,Li Yulong.Comprehensive decision-making of transmission network planning based on entropy weight and grey relational analysis[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(1):77-81(in Chinese).
- [25]迟国泰,祝志川,张玉玲.基于熵权-G1法的科技评价模型及实证研究[J].科学学研究,2008,26(6):1210-1220..Chi Guotai,Zhu Zhichuan,Zhang Yulin.The science and technology evaluation model based on entropy and G1 and empirical research of China[J].Studies in Science of Science,2008,26(6):1210-1220(in Chinese).
- [26]Martinez J A,Martin-Arnedo J.Voltage sag studies in distribution networks-part II:voltage sag assessment[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2006,21(3):1679-1688.
- [27]Sherif O F,Roy B,Saleh A.Stochastic evaluation of voltage sag and unbalance in transmission systems[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,2005,20(4):2631-2637.