张楷旋;陈建英;郭创新;范承志;张俊超;邓孟华;

• 1:浙江大学电气工程学院
• 2:国网上海市电力公司市南供电公司

摘要(Abstract)：

概率潮流是分析电力系统不确定性的重要工具。为了有效研究不同天气状况下含风电场电力系统的潮流变化情况,引入三状态天气模型模拟天气状况对架空输电线和风力机强迫停运的影响,并推导出计及风力机出力与风速非线性关系和风力机故障的风电场出力概率模型,以更准确地描述风速波动较大时风电场输出功率的概率特性。采用基于半不变量的概率潮流法求解问题,通过Gram-Charlier级数和Von Mises法分别得到待求状态变量的连续部分和离散部分。对IEEE RTS 24节点系统的测试表明:计及风力机出力与风速非线性关系和风力机故障的风电场出力模型是必要且合理的,天气因素对含风电场电力系统的潮流概率分布有重要影响。

关键词(KeyWords)： 概率潮流;半不变量;三状态天气模型;风电场

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2013CB228206);; 国家自然科学基金项目(51177143);; 浙江省自然科学基金项目(LZ12E07002)~~

作者(Author): 张楷旋;陈建英;郭创新;范承志;张俊超;邓孟华;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2014.12.023

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