刘洁颖;刘俊勇;黄媛;刘友波;高红均;庄丹;马铁丰;

• 1:四川大学电气信息学院
• 2:西南财经大学统计学院

摘要(Abstract)：

研究了基于面板数据的含分布式电源(distributed generator,DG)的主动配电网规划场景的降维技术。首先,对主动配电网的中长期规划进行时序模拟,将负荷按不同的类型建立其增长的时序数学模型,在考虑光伏、风电等DG容量自然增长的前提下采用自回归-滑动平均(auto regression-moving average model,ARMA)模型建立时序模型;然后,引入统计学中的变点理论分别建立DG和负荷的时序分区子场景,最后通过综合变点理论对上述时序场景进行融合,分段抽取出典型时序场景。仿真表明,有序聚类可以有效体现不同时间尺度上负荷以及DG的增长运行情况;通过搜寻变点,能将模拟出的近百万个中长期时序场景有序地聚类成14个连续时间场景,大大削减了场景个数,提高了效率。

关键词(KeyWords)： 主动配电网;时序;面板数据;有序聚类;场景降维

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家科技部863计划项目(2014AA051901);; 国家自然科学基金资助项目(51437003)~~

作者(Author): 刘洁颖;刘俊勇;黄媛;刘友波;高红均;庄丹;马铁丰;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2016.2792

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