时间序列与神经网络法相结合的短期风速预测Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Combing Time Series and Neural Network Method
蔡凯;谭伦农;李春林;陶雪峰;
摘要(Abstract):
利用时间序列-神经网络法研究了短期风速预测。该方法用时间序列模型来选择神经网络的输入变量,选用多层反向传播(back propagation,BP)神经网络和广义回归神经网络(generalized regression neural network,GRNN)分别对采样时间间隔为10min、20min和30min的风速序列进行预测。结果表明,时间序列结合GRNN的方法精度更高,具有一定的实用价值。
关键词(KeyWords): 短期风速预测;风力发电;时间序列;人工神经网络
基金项目(Foundation):
作者(Author): 蔡凯;谭伦农;李春林;陶雪峰;
Email:
DOI:
参考文献(References):
- [1]李晶,宋家骅,王伟胜.大型变速恒频风力发电机组建模与仿真[J].中国电机工程学报,2004,24(6):100-105.Li Jing,Song Jiahua,Wang Weisheng.Modeling and dynamic simulation of variable speed wind turbine with large capacity[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2004,24(6):100-105(in Chinese).
- [2]雷亚洲,Gordon Lightbody.国外风力发电导则及动态模型简介[J].电网技术,2005,29(12):27-32.Lei Yazhou,Gordon Lightbody.An introduction on wind power grid code and dynamic simulation[J].Power System Technology,2005,29(12):27-32(in Chinese).
- [3]李晶,王伟胜,宋家骅.变速恒频风力发电机组建模与仿真[J].电网技术,2003,27(9):14-17.Li Jing,Wang Weisheng,Song Jiahua.Modeling and dynamic simulation of vatiable speed wind turbine[J].Power System Technology,2003,27(9):14-17(in Chinese).
- [4]雷亚洲,王伟胜,戴慧珠,等.风电对电力系统运行的价值分析[J].电网技术,2002,26(5):10-14.Lei Yazhou,Wang Weisheng,Dai Huizhu,et al.Analysis of wind power value to power system operation[J].Power System Technology,2002,26(5):10-14(in Chinese).
- [5]雷亚洲,王伟胜,印永华,等.基于机会约束规划的风电穿透功率极限计算[J].中国电机工程学报,2002,22(5):32-35.Lei Yazhou,Wang Weisheng,Yin Yonghua,et al.Wind power penetration limit calculation based on chance constrained programming[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2002,22(5):32-35(in Chinese).
- [6]郑国强,鲍海,陈树勇.基于近似线性规划的风电场穿透功率极限优化的改进算法[J].中国电机工程学报,2004,24(10):68-71.Zheng Guoqiang,Bao Hai,Chen Shuyong.Amending algorithm for wind farm penetration optimization based on approximate linear programming method[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2004,24(10):68-71(in Chinese).
- [7]Riahy G,Freere P.Dynamic wind turbine energy extraction showing the benefits of short time wind prediction[C].Proceedings of the Solar’96Conference,Darwin,Australia,1996.
- [8]Huang Z,Chalabi Z S.Use of time series analysis to model and forecast wind speed[J].Wind Eng Ind Aerodyn,1995,(56):311-22.
- [9]Park J.The wind power book[M].Singapore:World Scientrific Publishing,1981.
- [10]Bossanyi E A.Short-term wind prediction using Kalman filters[J].Wind Engineering,1985,9(1):1-8.
- [11]Kamal L,Jafri Y Z.Time series models to simulate and forecast hourly averaged wind speed in Wuetta,Pakistan[J].Solar Energy,1997,61(1):23-32.
- [12]Kariniotakis G,Stavrakakis G,Nogaret E.Wind power forecastingusing advanced neural network models[J].IEEE Trans Energy Conversion,1996,11(4):762-767.
- [13]杨秀媛,肖洋,陈树勇.风电场风速和发电功率预测研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(11):3-7.Yang Xiuyuan,Xiao Yang,Chen Shuyong.Wind speed and generated power forecasting in wind farm[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2005,25(11):3-7(in Chinese).
- [14]韩力群.人工神经网络理论、设计及应用[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2002.
- [15]郭晶,孙伟娟.神经网络理论与Matlab7实现[M].北京:电子工业出版社,2007.