范婷婷;杜松怀;刘科研;苏娟;

• 1:中国农业大学信息与电气工程学院
• 2:先进配电自动化与配电网优化控制联合实验室(中国电力科学研究院)

摘要(Abstract)：

为准确分析分布式电源出力的波动性和相关性对配电网可靠性的影响,提出一种计及随机变量相关性的有源配电网可靠性评估三点估计法。该方法利用Nataf变换处理输入变量之间的相关性,结合点估计法将有源配电网可靠性概率分析转化为确定性问题求解。首先在独立的标准正态变量空间中根据点估计法原理选取样本点;然后通过Nataf逆变换求取对应的原始变量空间的样本点,构造可靠性评估样本;最后采用故障模式后果分析法对样本进行可靠性计算,并将样本结果概率叠加得到配电网可靠性指标的概率分布信息。改进的IEEE RBTS-Bus6馈线F4系统算例结果表明,所提方法能够有效实现计及输入变量相关性的配电网可靠性评估,并且计算量小、计算速度快,具有良好的精度。

关键词(KeyWords)： 有源配电网;概率可靠性;分布式电源;Nataf变换;三点估计法;相关性

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFB0900100);; 国家电网公司科技项目(PDB51201500544)~~

作者(Author): 范婷婷;杜松怀;刘科研;苏娟;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2016.2332

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