叶一达;魏林君;乔颖;李琰;鲁宗相;

• 1:电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室(清华大学电机系)
• 2:新能源与储能运行控制国家重点实验室(中国电力科学研究院)

摘要(Abstract)：

功率点值预测信息未充分考虑可再生能源的不确定性及波动性,在日前发电计划和备用决策安排中存在保守或冒进的风险。引入非参数化方法,根据历史风资源状况得到风电出力的非参数条件概率预测结果,建立风电日前消纳调度模型。该模型在不同资源主导因素所划分的条件空间子集中得到预测功率条件概率分布,能够反映弃风和失负荷风险,可以根据调度需求选取不同的预测功率置信区间,计及风电不确定性完整的条件概率信息。仿真算例验证了选取合适置信水平的风电非参数化条件概率预测方法在日前优化运行中有效提高风电消纳水平,并降低系统运行风险。

关键词(KeyWords)： 风电日前消纳;非参数化;条件概率预测;系统运行风险

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划支持项目(2016YFB0900105);; 国家电网公司科技项目(XTB17201500037)~~

作者(Author): 叶一达;魏林君;乔颖;李琰;鲁宗相;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2016.3054

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