梁志峰;王铮;冯双磊;董存;万筱钟;丘刚;

• 1:国家电网有限公司
• 2:新能源与储能运行控制国家重点实验室(中国电力科学研究院有限公司)
• 3:国家电网公司西北分部
• 4:国网新疆电力有限公司

摘要(Abstract)：

风电功率超短期预测是调整日内发电计划、开展风电增量现货交易、提高风电消纳的基础之一。针对风电功率超短期预测精度提升问题,有别其他单纯引入预测算法的研究思路,以挖掘和分析风电功率的固有波动规律为切入点,围绕风电波动规律在超短期预测中的利用问题研究新方法。具体来说,在认识风电出力序列高频低能量随机波动和低频高能量波动构成特点的基础上,研究了低频高能量波动自动识别和提取方法,发现了风电出力序列的低频高能量波动复演特征,并采用波动特征匹配与融合方法加以利用,提出了基于低频类波动过程挖掘与动态融合的超短期预测新思路。以实际数据进行仿真,结果显示所提出的方法正确可行,且与其他方法比较发现,所提出方法的预测性能提升显著。目前该方法已在西北地区应用。

关键词(KeyWords)： 风力发电;超短期预测;波动构成;低频波动;波动特征匹配;波动规律挖掘

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2018YFB0904200);; 国家电网有限公司科技项目(SGNXDK00DWJS1800013)~~

作者(Author): 梁志峰;王铮;冯双磊;董存;万筱钟;丘刚;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2019.2472

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