孟洋洋;卢继平;孙华利;潘雪;高道春;廖勇;

• 1:输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室(重庆大学)
• 2:云南电力调度中心

摘要(Abstract)：

风电场发电功率短期预测对并网风力发电系统的安全性和稳定性具有重要意义。根据影响风电出力的因素,提出了选择风电场发电功率相似日的方法,设计了基于相似日和Chebyshev神经网络的风电功率短期预测模型,根据云南某风电场数据对该模型进行验证,分析了预测误差及其概率分布,结果表明该预测模型具有较高的预测精度,可为风电功率预测提供参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 风力发电;风电场;短期预测;相似日;人工神经网络

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 重庆市科委科技计划攻关项目(CSTC2008AB3047)的资助

作者(Author): 孟洋洋;卢继平;孙华利;潘雪;高道春;廖勇;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2010.12.026

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