代倩;曾平良;周勤勇;赵峰;李柏青;

• 1:中国电力科学研究院
• 2:国网冀北电力有限公司电力科学研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

目前关于多风电场与梯级水电站协调运行对电力系统可靠性影响的研究较少,为此提出了一种评估大规模风电场接入含有梯级水电站的电力系统的可靠性的方法。该方法较准确地建立了风电场、梯级水电站的出力模型,充分考虑了多个风电场之间的相关性和梯级水电站来水径流的不确定性,并建立了基于拉丁超立方采样的序贯蒙特卡罗可靠性模型,可用于评估可再生能源的利用率和系统的长期可靠性。通过将风电-水电协调运行模式下的可靠性与风电、水电独立运行模式下的可靠性进行对比,验证了前者的优越性。最后将上述方法应用于测评西北直调电网中风-水-火协调运行和各自独立运行对系统可靠性的影响,结果表明协调运行可大幅度提高系统的可靠性,同时也验证了所提模型和方法的合理性。

关键词(KeyWords)： 风速相关性;梯级水电站;拉丁超立方抽样;电力系统可靠性;序贯蒙特卡洛仿真

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家863高技术基金项目(2011AA05A103);; 国家电网公司千人计划专项支持项目(CEPRI:XT71-12-028)~~

作者(Author): 代倩;曾平良;周勤勇;赵峰;李柏青;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2015.06.033

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