杨志凌;刘永前;

• 1:华北电力大学

摘要(Abstract)：

根据数值气象预报的风速和风向数据,采用粒子群优化的前向神经网络模型进行短期风电功率预测。分析了数据相关性对预测结果的影响,比较了粒子群优化前后的前向神经网络模型的性能。研究结果表明,经过粒子群优化后的前向神经网络模型比没有优化的前向神经网络有更好的性能,且根据数据相关性较好的测试样本可得到较好的预测结果。风速风向数值预报与输出功率的相关系数越高,基于粒子群优化前向神经网络模型的预测精度越高于没有优化的前向神经网络模型。

关键词(KeyWords)： 风电功率;预测;粒子群;神经网络

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家863高技术基金项目(2007AA05Z428)~~

作者(Author): 杨志凌;刘永前;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2011.05.021

参考文献(References)：

• [1]Wegley H,Formica W.Test applications of a semi-objective approach to wind forecasting for wind energy applications[R].Richland,USA:Pacific Northwest Laboratory,1983.
• [2]Wegley H,Kosorok M,Formica W.Sub-hourly wind forecasting techniques for wind turbine operations[R].Richland,USA:Pacific Northwest Laboratory,1984.
• [3]Geerts H.Short range prediction of wind speeds:a system-theoretic approach[C]//Proceedings of European Wind Energy Conference.Hamburg,Germany:,1984:594-599.
• [4]Bossanyi E.Short-term wind prediction using Kalman filters[J].Wind Energy,1985,9(1):1-8.
• [5]Kaminsky F.Time series models of average wind speed within synoptic weather categories[C]//Proceedings of the fourth ASME Wind Energy Symposium.Dallas,USA:American Society of Mechanical Engineers,1985:215-219.
• [6]Louka P,Galanis G.Improvements in wind speed forecasts for wind power prediction purposes using Kalman filtering[J].Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,2008,96(12):2348-2362.
• [7]El-Fouly T H M,El-Saadany E F,Salama M M A.Grey predictor for wind energy conversion systems output power prediction[J].IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2006,21(3):1450-1452.
• [8]Barbounis T G,Theocharis J B.Locally recurrent neural networks for long-term wind speed and power prediction[J].Neurocomputing,2006,69(4-6):466-496.
• [9]Sideratos G,Hatziargyriou N.Using radial basis neural networks to estimate wind power production[C]//IEEE Power Engineering Society General Meeting.Tampa,USA:IEEE,2007:1-7.
• [10]Dong Lei,Wang Lijie,Hu Shi,et al.Prediction of wind power generation based on chaotic phase space reconstruction models[C]//IEEE Power Electronics and Drive Systems 2007.Bangkok,Thailand:IEEE,2007:744-748.
• [11]Mabel M C,Fernandez E.Analysis of wind power generation and prediction using ANN:a case study[J].Renewable Energy,2008,33(5):986-992.
• [12]Mohandes M A,Halawani T O,Rehman S,et al.Support vector machines for wind speed prediction[J].Renewable Energy,2004,29(6):939-947.
• [13]Sreelakshmi K,Ramakanth K P.Short term wind speed prediction using support vector machine model[J].WSEAS Transactions on Computers,2008,7(11):1828-1836.
• [14]Lars L,Simon J W.Short term prediction of local wind conditions[J].Boundary-Layer Meteorology,1994,70(1-2):171-195.
• [15]Landberg L.A mathematical look at a physical power prediction model[J].Wind Energy,1998,1(1):23-28.
• [16]Beyer H,Heinemann D,Mellinghoff H,et al.Forecast of regional power output of wind turbines[C]//Proceedings of European Wind Energy Conference.France:European Wind Energy Association,1999:17-20.
• [17]Watson R,Landberg L,Costello R,et al.Evaluation of the predictor wind power forecasting system in Ireland[C]//Proceedings of European Wind Energy Conference.Copenhagen,Denmark:European Wind Energy Association,2001:10-15.
• [18]Palomares A,Castro M.Short-term wind prediction model at the Strait of Gibraltar based on a perfect prognosis statistical downscaling method[C]//Proceedings of European Wind Energy Conference.Madrid,Spain:European Wind Energy Association,2003:7-13.
• [19]Lozano T.Prediction and planning of wind energy production[C]//Proceedings of European Wind Energy Conference.Madrid,Spain:European Wind Energy Association,2003:20-24.
• [20]韩爽.风电场功率短期预测方法研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2008.
• [21]杨秀媛,肖洋,陈树勇.风电场风和发电功率预测研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(11):1-5.Yang Xiuyuan,Xiao Yang,Chen Shuyong.Wind speed and generated power forecasting in wind farm[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2005,25(11):1-5(in Chinese).
• [22]吴兴华,周晖,黄梅.基于模式识别的风电场风速和发电功率预测[J].继电器,2008,36(1):27-32.Wu Xinghua,Zhou Hui,Huang Mei.Wind speed and generated power forecasting based on pattern recognition in wind farm[J].Relay,2008,36(1):27-32(in Chinese).
• [23]范高锋,王伟胜,刘纯.基于人工神经网络的风电功率短期预测系统[J].电网技术,2008,32(22):72-76.Fan Gaofeng,Wang Weisheng,Liu Chun.Artificial neural network based wind power short term prediction system[J].Power System Technology,2008,32(22):72-76(in Chinese).
• [24]范高锋,王伟胜,刘纯,等.基于人工神经网络的风电功率预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2008,28(34):118-123.Fan Gaofeng,Wang Weisheng,Liu Chun,et al.Wind power prediction based on artificial neural network[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2008,28(34):118-123(in Chinese).
• [25]李文良,卫志农,孙国强,等.基于改进空间相关法和径向基神经网络的风电场短期风速分时预测模型[J].电力自动化设备,2009,29(6):89-92.Li Wenliang,Wei Zhinong,Sun Guoqiang,et al.Multi-interval wind speed forecast model based on improved spatial correlation and RBF neural network[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2009,29(6):89-92(in Chinese).
• [26]彭怀午,杨晓峰,刘方锐.基于SVM方法的风电场短期风速预测[J].电网与清洁能源,2009,25(7):48-52.Peng Huaiwu,Yang Xiaofeng,Liu Fangrui.Short-term wind speed forecasting of wind farm based on SVM method[J].Power System and Clean Energy,2009,25(7):48-52(in Chinese).
• [27]纪国瑞.风电场风速软测量与预测及短期风速数值模拟方法研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2009.
• [28]何育,高山,陈昊.基于ARMA-ARCH模型的风电场风速预测研究[J].江苏电机工程,2009,28(3):1-4.He Yu,Gao Shan,Chen Hao.Wind speed forecast for wind farms based on ARMA-ARCH model[J].Jiangsu Electrical Engineering,2009,28(3):1-4(In Chinese).
• [29]管胜利.基于局域波分解及时间序列的风电场风速预测研究[J].华北电力技术,2009(1):10-13.Guan Shengli.Wind speed forecasting in wind farm based on local wave decomposition and time series[J].North China Electric Power,2009(1):10-13(In Chinese).
• [30]陶玉飞,李伟宏,杨喜峰.风电场风速预测模型研究[J].电网与清洁能源,2009,25(3):53-56.Tao Yufei,Li Weihong,Yang Xifeng.Wind speed forecast model for wind farms[J].Power System and Clean Energy,2009,25(3):53-56(in Chinese).
• [31]刘纯,范高锋,王伟胜,等.风电场输出功率的组合预测模型[J].电网技术,2009,33(13):74-79.Liu Chun,Fan Gaofeng,Wang Weisheng,et al.A combination forecasting model for wind farm output power[J].Power System Technology,2009,33(13):74-79(in Chinese).