王晶;黄越辉;李驰;项康利;林毅;

• 1:新能源与储能运行控制国家重点实验室(中国电力科学研究院有限公司)
• 2:国网福建省电力有限公司经济技术研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

提出了一种考虑多光伏电站在地理位置及天气类型上的相关性、适用于电力系统中长期规划及电网运行方式安排的光伏发电时间序列建模方法。首先分析了光伏发电时间序列相关性的影响因素及表达方式,根据地位位置与天气类型两方面影响因素将光伏出力分为净空出力与相对出力两部分,其中净空出力能够准确表达光伏电站间的空间相关性,相对出力的聚类识别及分解能够有效体现各电站天气类型大概率相同前提下波动出力的随机性。在此基础之上,提出了基于空间相关性及天气类型划分的光伏发电时间序列建模方法,建模生成的光伏发电时间序列不仅继承了原始序列的单电站均值、方差、概率分布及波动等出力特性,而且保留了多个场站在不同时间维度上的出力相关性。最后基于某省光伏电站的实测出力数据进行模拟仿真,分析验证了文中建模方法的有效性。

关键词(KeyWords)： 光伏;时间序列;相关性;天气类型;聚类

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家电网有限公司科技项目(521302N180005)：“全局计划决策与现货市场核心技术研究与应用”~~

作者(Author): 王晶;黄越辉;李驰;项康利;林毅;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2019.0729

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