郭经;刘文霞;张建华;梁策;

• 1:新能源与电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学)
• 2:华电(北京)热电有限公司

摘要(Abstract)：

为考察信息系统对微网可靠性的影响,从信息物理融合的角度提出孤岛微网可靠性建模与评估方法,更细致全面地刻画微网可靠性水平与运行风险。依据孤岛微网信息物理元件交互影响机理,基于马尔科夫过程理论建立了新的断路器元件三状态可靠性模型,为分析信息物理间接作用提供方法;考虑通信网络复杂性和冗余特征,借鉴传统通信网络利用关联矩阵和深度优先搜索评估连通性的方法,建立了基于连通性评价的信息系统可靠性模型;考虑孤岛微网优化运行状态对故障后果分析的影响,运用计及优化运行策略的系统状态生成方法,建立优化模型并求解。在此基础上,基于序贯蒙特卡罗模拟法,提出孤岛微网信息物理融合可靠性评估算法。通过对算例进行仿真测试,验证所提模型和方法的可行性和有效性,研究成果有助于推动微网可靠性评估的进一步发展。

关键词(KeyWords)： 孤岛微网;信息物理;可靠性评估;序贯蒙特卡罗

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFB0903100)~~

作者(Author): 郭经;刘文霞;张建华;梁策;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2017.2175

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