基于减法聚类及自适应模糊神经网络的短期电价预测Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Subtractive Clustering and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
吴兴华;周晖;
摘要(Abstract):
提出了基于Takagi-Sugeno模型的自适应模糊神经网络的短期电价预测方法。首先采用减法聚类方法确定自适应模糊神经网络的结构,然后利用混合学习算法训练该网络的前件参数和结论参数,最后将影响未来日电价的相关因素输入到训练好的自适应模糊神经网络中进行电价预测。以美国加州电力市场公布的1999年负荷与电价数据进行模型训练和预测,结果表明采用该方法所建立的预测模型具有较高的预测精度。
关键词(KeyWords): 电力市场;短期电价预测;减法聚类;自适应模糊神经网络
基金项目(Foundation):
作者(Author): 吴兴华;周晖;
Email:
DOI:
参考文献(References):
- [1]杜松怀,文福拴,李扬,等.电力系统的市场化运营-预测、计划与风险管理[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2005.
- [2]王锡凡,张显.短期电价综述[J].电力系统自动化,2006,30(3):92-101.Wang Xifan,Zhang Xian.Review of the short-term electricity price forecasting[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2006,30(3):92-101(in Chinese).
- [3]陈思杰,周浩.电力市场电价预测方法综述[J].继电器,2006,34(11):54-60.Chen Sijie,Zhou Hao.Electricity price forecast methods of electricity market[J].Relay,2006,34(11):54-60(in Chinese).
- [4]Nogales F J,Contreras J,Conejo A J,et a1,Forecasting next day electricity prices by time series models[J].IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2001,l7(2):342-348.
- [5]刘正国,付祥明,高伏英,等.基于神经网络的浙江发电市场清算电价预测方法[J].电力系统自动化,2002,26(9):49-52.Liu Zhengguo,Fu Xiangming,Gao Fuying,et al.Forecasting market-clearing price in Zhejiang market using neural network[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2002,26(9):49-52(in Chinese).
- [6]杨朴,游大海,谢培元.基于遗传算法和BP神经网络的电价预测[J].水电能源科学,2003,21(2):84-86.Yang Pu,You Dahai,Xie Peiyuan.Price forecasting based on genetic algorithm and BP neural network[J].Water Resources and Power,2003,21(2):84-86(in Chinese).
- [7]杨莉,邱家驹,江道灼.基于BP网络的下一交易日无约束市场清算价格预测模型[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(19):11-14.Yang Li,Qiu Jiaju,Jiang Daozhuo.BP based day-ahead unconstrained market clearing price forecasting model[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2001,25(19):11-14(in Chinese).
- [8]谢培元,游大海,曾次玲,等.基于遗传算法优化BP网络的提前一天市场清算电价预测[J].电力自动化设备,2004,24(3):53-56.Xie Peiyuan,You Dahai,Zeng Ciling,et a1.Clearing price forecast for day-ahead market based on genetic-algorithm-optimized BP network[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2004,24(3):53-56(in Chinese).
- [9]苏娟,杜松怀.GM(1,2)短期现货电价灰色预测模型[J].继电器,2006,36(1):46-49.Su Juan,Du Songhuai.The GM(1,2)short-term spot price forecasting grey model[J].Relay,2006,36(1):46-49(in Chinese).
- [10]程晓鑫,周渝慧.基于灰色改进模型的电价预测[J].华北电力大学学报,2006,33(1):47-50.Cheng Xiaoxin,Zhou Yuhui.Research on electricity price prediction based on improved grey model[J].Journal of North China Electric Power University,2006,33(1):47-50(in Chinese).
- [11]刘爱国,胡宏宇.基于减法聚类的自适应模糊神经网络的短期负荷预测[J].南昌大学学报(工学版),2005,27(3):90-92.Liu Aiguo,Hu Hongyu.Short-term load forecasting based on subtractive clustering adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system[J].Journal of Nanchang University(Engineering&Technology Edition),2005,27(3):90-92(in Chinese).
- [12]杨帆,吴耀武,熊信银,等.基于自适应神经模糊系统的电力系统短期负荷预测[J].华中电力,2006,19(4):1-3,18.Yang Fan,Wu Yaowu,Xiong Xinyin,et al.Short-term load forecasting in power system based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system[J].Central China Electric Power,2006,19(4):1-3,18(in Chinese).
- [13]姚李孝,杨国清,王德意,等.减法聚类在水轮发电机模糊神经励磁调节器设计中的应用[J].电网技术,2004,28(16):48-51.Yao Lixiao,Yang Guoqing,Wang Deyi,et al.Application of subtractive clustering in design of fuzzy neural excitation regulator for hydro-generator[J].Power System Technology,2004,28(16):48-51(in Chinese).
- [14]Chiu S L.Fuzzy model identification based on cluster estimation[M].Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems,1994,2(3):267-278.
- [15]赵庆波,周原冰,郭蓉,等.模糊神经网络在电力系统边际电价预测中的应用[J].电网技术,2004,28(7):45-48.Zhao Qingbo,Zhou Yuanbing,Guo Rong,et al.Application of fuzzy neural network in power system marginal price forecasting[J].Power System Technology,2004,28(7):45-48(in Chinese).
- [16]雷绍兰,孙才新,张晓星,等.基于径向基神经网络和自适应神经模糊系统的电力短期负荷预测方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(22):78-82.Lei Shaolan,Sun Caixin,Zhang Xiaoxing,et al.Short-term load forecasting method based on RBF neural network and ANFIS system[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2005,25(22):78-82(in Chinese).
- [17]敖磊,熊信银,吴耀武,等.基于改进DFNN的短期电价预测新方法[J].继电器,2006,34(6):34-38.Ao Lei,Xiong Xinyin,Wu Yaowu,et al.A new approach to short-term price forecasting based on improved DFNN[J].Relay,2006,34(6):34-38(in Chinese).
- [18]楼顺天,胡昌华,张伟.基于MATLAB的系统分析与设计—模糊系统[M].西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,2001.