王铮;Rui Pestana;冯双磊;申洪;Luis Rosa;

• 1:中国电力科学研究院
• 2:葡萄牙国家能源网公司

摘要(Abstract)：

风电功率预测是解决大规模风电并网问题的有效手段之一,预测精度越高,越有利于提高电网运行的安全性和经济性。为了提高风电功率短期预测精度,通过组合预测方式弥补单一预测模型的局限性,针对各预测结果性能随预测时间尺度变化的问题,提出了不同时间断面差异化的组合预测方法,并根据风电功率的波动特性,恰当引入天气变化的持续信息,优化了15 min~4 h预测时间尺度下的预测精度。同时,针对各集合成员每日更新结果,通过在线建模方式,动态修正各集合单元组合权值,提高预测模型的适应性。实际算例表明,所提方法能够得到风电功率预测结果,组合系数变化性质符合实际原理,与目前常用的组合预测方法相比,预测精度更优。

关键词(KeyWords)： 风力发电;风电功率预测;功率波动特性;集合预测;动态组合预测

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973项目)(2016YFB0900502);; 国家自然科学基金项目(51477156);; 国家电网公司科技项目(NY7116021)~~

作者(Author): 王铮;Rui Pestana;冯双磊;申洪;Luis Rosa;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2016.0953

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