龙日尚;张建华;蒙园;谭涛;胡浩;刘阳;

• 1:新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学)

摘要(Abstract)：

为研究特高压交直流电网承受自然灾害的能力,基于风险评估理论,研究了适用于严重灾害下特高压交直流混合电网的安全性分析方法。首先,考虑连锁故障的全过程,提出一种基于PSD电力系统分析软件仿真的快速故障概率计算方法,计算系统在某初始故障集下的连锁故障概率;并考虑故障恢复阶段的损失,建立全过程风险评估模型;其次,从电网架构、故障状态、经济损失3个方面提出了综合指标评价体系,对系统风险进行了量化评估。最后对某地区特高压电网2种规划方案进行了风险评估,通过比较其连锁故障发展过程,并根据事故阶段和恢复阶段的风险指标计算结果,得出了优选网架规划方案,验证了研究工作的有效性。

关键词(KeyWords)： 特高压;连锁故障;风险评估;指标体系

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(51277067);; 电网技术国际标准研制(201510207-3)~~

作者(Author): 龙日尚;张建华;蒙园;谭涛;胡浩;刘阳;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2016.2842

参考文献(References)：

• [1]鲁宗相.电网复杂性及大停电事故的可靠性研究[J].电力系统自动化,2005,29(12):93-97.Lu Zongxiang.Survey of the research on the complexity of power grids and reliability analysis of blackouts[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2005,29(12):93-97(in Chinese).
• [2]Dobson I,Chen J,Thorp J S,et al.Examining criticality of blackouts in power system models with cascading events[C]//Proceedings of35th IEEE Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences,Maui,HI,USA,2002.
• [3]Kirschen D S,Jayaweera D,Nedic D P,et al.A probabilistic indicator of system stress[J].IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2004,19(3):1650-1657.
• [4]余晓鹏,张雪敏,钟雨芯,等.交直流系统连锁故障模型及停电风险分析[J].电力系统自动化,2014,38(19):33-39.Yu Xiaopeng,Zhang Xuemin,Zhong Yuxin,et al.Cascading failure model of AC-DC system and blackout risk analysis[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(19):33-39(in Chinese).
• [5]林伟芳,汤涌,卜广全.多馈入交直流系统短路比的定义和应用[J].中国电机工程学报,2008,28(31):1-8.Lin Weifang,Tang Yong,Bu Guangquan.Definition and application of short circuit ratio for multi-infeed AC/DC power systems[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2008,28(31):1-8(in Chinese).
• [6]段满银,张国华.国内外直流输电系统可靠性指标对比分析[J].电网技术,2013,37(9):2390-2395.Duan Manyin,Zhang Guohua.Contrastive analysis on reliability indices of HVDC power transmission systems home and abroad[J].Power System Technology,2013,37(9):2390-2395(in Chinese).
• [7]李俊霞,严兵,张爱玲,等.特高压直流双极区直流保护系统可靠性研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2016,44(12):130-136Li Junxia,Yan Bing,Zhang Ailing,et al.Reliability research for UHVDC bipolar area DC protection system[J].Power System Protection and Control,2016,44(12):130-136(in Chinese).
• [8]叶冠豪,张焰,张志强.计及特高压输电线路影响的自组织临界电网风险评估方法[J].电力系统自动化,2015,39(13):44-52.Ye Guanhao,Zhang Yan,Zhang Zhiqiang.A modified self-organized criticality method for power system risk assessment concerning influences of ultra-high-voltage transmission lines[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2015,39(13):44-52(in Chinese).
• [9]刘友波,胥威汀,丁理杰,等.电力系统连锁故障分析理论与应用(二):关键特征与研究启示[J].电力系统保护与控制,2013,41(10):146-155.Liu Youbo,Xu Weiting,Ding Lijie,et al.Power system cascading failure analysis theories and application II:key features of real cascading failures and revelation aspects[J].Power System Protection and Control,2013,41(10):146-155(in Chinese).
• [10]Guo L,Guo C X,Tang W H,et al.Evidence-based approach to power transmission risk assessment with component failure risk analysis[J].IET Generation,Transmission&Distribution,2012,7(6):665-672.
• [11]刘哲,贾宏杰,徐弢,等.基于N-k风险的风储系统接入及容量配置研究[J].电网技术,2014,38(4):889-894.Liu Zhe,Jia Hongjie,Xu Tao,et al.Study on N-k risk based gridconnection and capacity allocation of wind farm and energy storage system[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(4):889-894(in Chinese).
• [12]Nur A S,Muhammad M O,Mohd S S.Risk assessment of cascading collapse considering the effect of hidden failure[C]//IEEE International Conference on Power and Energy,Kota Kinabalu,Malaysia,2012:778-783.
• [13]许婧,白晓民.考虑保护隐藏故障的系统N-k故障分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(1):108-114.Xu Jing,Bai Xiaomin.Power system N-k contingency analysis in consideration of protection hidden failure[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2012,32(1):108-114(in Chinese).
• [14]贺海磊,郭剑波.考虑共因失效的电力系统地震灾害风险评估[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(28):44-56.He Hailei,Guo Jianbo.Seismic disaster risk evaluation for power systems considering common cause failure[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2012,32(28):44-56(in Chinese).
• [15]黄山,刘俊勇,胥威汀.冰灾下考虑多种拓扑特性的电网风险分析[J].电力建设,2014,35(3):43-49.Huang Shan,Liu Junyong,Xu Weiting.Risk analysis of power system with various topological characteristics under ice storm[J].Electric Power Construction,2014,35(3):43-49(in Chinese).
• [16]Wenyuan Li.Risk assessment of power systems[M].IEEE Press and A John Wiley&Sons,2005.
• [17]任晓娜,彭显刚,王星华.南方电网结构脆弱性指标的评判研究[J].广东电力,2012,25(8):7-13.Ren Xiaona,Peng Xiangang,Wang Xinghua.Research on structure vulnerability index assessment in CSG[J].Guangdong Electric Power,2012,25(8):7-13(in Chinese).
• [18]李明节.大规模特高压交直流混联电网特性分析与运行控制[J].电网技术,2016,40(4):985-991.Li Mingjie.Characteristic analysis and operational control of large-scale hybrid UHV AC/DC power grids[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(4):985-991(in Chinese).
• [19]李蓉蓉,张晔,江全元.复杂电力系统连锁故障的风险评估[J].电网技术,2006,30(10):18-23.Li Rongrong,Zhang Ye,Jiang Quanyuan.Risk assessment forcascading failures of complex power system[J].Power System Technology,2006,30(10):18-23(in Chinese).
• [20]Billinton R,Ganty K P R S.Probabilistic assessment of transient stability in a practical multi-machine system[J].IEEE Trans on Power Apparatus and Systems,1981,100(7):3634-3671.
• [21]尹波,庞松龄,杨眉.基于阻尼灵敏度指标的PSS参数优化[J].电力系统保护与控制,2011,39(8):28-32.Yin Bo,Pang Songling,Yang Mei.Optimization of PSS parameters based on damping sensitivity indices[J].Power System Protection and Control,2011,39(8):28-32(in Chinese).
• [22]Pieter-tjerk D B,Dirk P K,Shie M,et al.A tutorial on the cross-entropy method[J].Annals of Operations Research,2005(134):19-67.