杨宏;闫晓然;闫玉杰;张铁峰;

• 1:华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

准确地估计风功率预测误差对电力系统的安全经济运行有十分重要的意义。大量研究表明,风功率预测误差具有不同程度的尖峰厚尾特征,在已有的研究成果中,TLS(Tlocation-scale)分布模型表现出了很好的适应性,受到了工程技术人员的关注。然而,常用的TLS建模方法是最大似然法,该方法不仅算法复杂,而且时间效率较差,在一些特殊的电力系统应用场景下难以使用。为了解决上述问题,给出了一个利用样本统计矩估计TLS参数的方法。该方法具有算法简单、计算快速的特点。它不仅可以单独使用,快速地得到令人满意的结果,还可以给最大似然法提供初始值,提高其计算效率。最后采用模拟数据和实际误差数据进行仿真,结果说明了论文方法的正确性和有效性。

关键词(KeyWords)： 风功率预测误差;TLS分布模型;矩估计法;最大似然法

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(51577067);; 河北省自然科学基金项目(F2015502047)~~

作者(Author): 杨宏;闫晓然;闫玉杰;张铁峰;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2018.0278

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