张简炼;罗刚;章立宗;郭创新;祁炜雯;章剑光;

• 1:浙江大学电气工程学院
• 2:绍兴供电局

摘要(Abstract)：

为提升电力系统调度的灵活性和可靠性,提出一种考虑负荷波动和输电线路可靠性的两阶段电网风险调度决策方法。在对相似日负荷进行层次聚类生成典型场景的基础上,将风险调度分解为日前、实时2个阶段。在日前阶段,以预测负荷安排机组组合及出力,在实时阶段,通过在负荷侧引入考虑可中断负荷和可转移负荷的需求响应机制,对不同概率的典型负荷场景下的日前发电计划进行动态校正补偿。同时将实时阶段的"N–1"潮流越限程度量化为风险值引入到目标函数中,与日前、实时阶段发电侧及负荷侧费用一并优化求解。最后,采用某地区电网实际负荷数据在IEEE标准算例模型下进行分析,验证了所述模型的有效性。

关键词(KeyWords)： 层次聚类;需求侧响应;线路风险量化;两阶段风险调度

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金重点项目(51537010);; 国网浙江省电力公司集体企业科技项目：地区电网全过程安全风险评估与“预防–校核–紧急”管控系统应用~~

作者(Author): 张简炼;罗刚;章立宗;郭创新;祁炜雯;章剑光;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2019.0755

参考文献(References)：

• [1]朱炳铨，倪秋龙，项中明，等．电网调度运行全过程风险跟踪与动态调控技术[J]．电力建设，2018,39(2):36-42.Zhu Bingquan,Ni Qiulong,Xiang Zhongming,et al.Risk tracing and dynamic control technology for whole process of power grid dispatching[J].Electric Power Construction,2018,39(2):36-42(in Chinese).
• [2]李春燕，陈骁，张鹏，等．计及风电功率预测误差的需求响应多时间尺度优化调度[J]．电网技术，2018,42(2):487-494.Li Chunyan,Chen Xiao,Zhang Peng,et al.Multi-time-scale demand response dispatch considering wind power forecast error[J].Power System Technology,2018,42(2):487-494(in Chinese).
• [3]文云峰．计及预想故障的电力系统风险调度模型与方法研究[D]．杭州：浙江大学，2015.
• [4]沈欣炜，郭庆来，许银亮，等．考虑多能负荷不确定性的区域综合能源系统鲁棒规划[J]．电力系统自动化，2019,43(7):34-45.Shen Xinwei,Guo Qinglai,Xu Yinliang,et al.Robust planning method for regional integrated energy system considering multi-energy load uncertaintie[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems,2019,43(7):34-45(in Chinese).
• [5]张心怡，杨家强，张晓军．基于机会约束的含多风电场动态经济调度[J]．浙江大学学报：工学版，2017,51(5):976-983.Zhang Xinyi,Yang Jiaqiang,Zhang Xiaojun.Dynamic economic dispatch incorporating multiple wind farms based on FFT simplified chance constrained programming[J].Journal of Zhejiang University:Engineer Science Eition,2017,51(5):976-983(in Chinese).
• [6]李滨，黄佳，吴茵，等．基于分形特性修正气象相似日的节假日短期负荷预测方法[J]．电网技术，2017,41(6):1949-1955.Li Bin,Huang Jia,Wu Yin,et al.Holiday short-term load forecasting based on fractal characteristic modified meteorological similar day[J].Power System Technology,2017,41(6):1949-1955(in Chinese).
• [7]王群，董文略，杨莉．基于Wasserstein距离和改进K-medoids聚类的风电/光伏经典场景集生成算法[J]．中国电机工程学报，2015,35(11):2654-2661.Wang Qun,Dong Wenl?e,Yang Li.A wind power/photovoltaic typical scenario set generation algorithm based on easserstein distance metric and revised K-medoids cluster[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(11):2654-2661(in Chinese).
• [8] Ochoa L F,Harrison G P.Minimizing energy losses:optimal accommodation and smart operation of renewable distributed generation[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2011,26(1):198-205.
• [9]周光东，周明，孙黎滢，等．含波动性电源的电力系统运行灵活性评价方法研究[J]．电网技术，2019,43(6):2139-2146.Zhou Guangdong,Zhou Ming,Sun Liying,et al.Research on operational flexibility evaluation approach of power system with variable sources[J].Power System Technology,2019,43(6):2139-2146(in Chinese).
• [10] Khodaei A,Shahidehpour M,Bahramirad S.SCUC with hourly demand response considering intertemporal load characteristics[J].IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid,2011,2(3):564-571.
• [11]王珂，郭晓蕊，周竞，等．智能电网“源-荷”协同调度框架及实现[J]．电网技术，2018,42(8):2637-2644.Wang Ke,Guo Xiaorui,Zhou Jing,et al.Framework and realization for smart grid “source-load” coordinated scheduling[J].Power System Technology,2018,42(8):2637-2644(in Chinese).
• [12]艾欣，周树鹏，赵阅群．基于场景分析的含可中断负荷的优化调度模型研究[J]．中国电机工程学报，2014,34(S1):25-31.Ai Xin,Zhou Shupeng,Zhao Yuequn.Research on optimal dispatch model considering interruptible loads based on scenario analysis[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(S1):25-31(in Chinese).
• [13]卢锦玲，於慧敏，杨进．计及风电输出相依结构和柔性负荷激励/补偿机制的随机调度策略[J]．电网技术，2017,41(6):1793-1800.Lu Jinling,Yu Huimin,Yang Jin.Stochastic scheduling strategy considering wind power dependence structure and motivationcompensation mechanism of flexible load[J]. Power System Technology,2017,41(6):1793-1800(in Chinese).
• [14]王海冰，戚永志，王承民，等．考虑柔性负荷的两阶段随机优化调度模型[J]．电网技术，2018,42(11):3669-3675.Wang Haibing,Qi Yongzhi,Wang Chengmin,et al.Two-stage stochastic optimal scheduling model considering flexible load[J].Power System Technology,2018,42(11):3669-3675(in Chinese).
• [15] Xi F,An Y,Wei Q,et al.Study on economic dispatching of wind power consumption considering dynamic game time-of-use price[C]//Global Conference on Mechanics&Civil Engineering.2017.
• [16]仉梦林，胡志坚，王小飞，等．基于动态场景集和需求响应的二阶段随机规划调度模型[J]．电力系统自动化，2017,41(11):68-76.Zhang Menglin,Hu Zhijian,Wang Xiaofei,et al.Two-stage stochastic programming scheduling model based on dynamic scenario sets and demand response[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2017,41(11):68-76(in Chinese).
• [17] Platbrood L,Crisciu H,Capitanescu F,et al.Solving very large-scale security-constrained optimal power flow problems by combing iterative contingency selection and network compression[C]//PSCC Conference,2011.
• [18]何宇斌，文云峰，戴赛，等．基于故障风险指标排序的安全约束最优潮流[J]．电力系统保护与控制，2015,43(13):52-59.He Yubin,Wen Yunfeng,Dai Sai,et al.Security-constrained optimal power flow based on risk ranking of contingencies[J].Power System Protection and Control,2015,43(13):52-59(in Chinese).
• [19]许奕斌，章禹，何宇斌，等．计及灵活性的检修—运行协同优化模型及算法[J]．电力系统自动化，2018,42(11):32-40.Xu Yibin,Zhang Yu,He Yubin,et al.Collaborative optimization model and algorithm of maintenance and operation considering flexibility[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2018,42(11):32-40(in Chinese).
• [20]刘怀东，冯志强，王锦桥，等．计及条件风险价值的综合能源系统经济调度[J]．电网技术，2018,42(5):1385-1392.Liu Huaidong,Feng Zhiqiang,Wang Jinqiao,et al.Economic dispatch of integrated energy systems considering conditional value-at-risk[J].Power System Technology,2018,42(5):1385-1392(in Chinese).
• [21] Gan G,Ma C,Wu J.Data clustering:theory,algorithms,and applications[J].Appendix A:Some Clustering Algorithms,2007,10.1137/1.9780898718348:371-373.
• [22]王蓓蓓．面向智能电网的用户需求响应特性和能力研究综述[J]．中国电机工程学报，2014,34(22):3654-3663.Wang Beibei.Research on consumers?response characterics and ability under smart grid:a literatures survey[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(22):3654-3663(in Chinese).
• [23] Kirschen D S,Strbac G,Cumperayot P,et al.Factoring the elasticity of demand in electricity prices[J].IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2000,15(2):612-617.
• [24]刘晓琳，王兆杰，高峰，等．分时电价下的高耗能企业发用电响应[J]．电力系统自动化，2014,38(8):41-49.Liu Xiaolin,Wang Zhaojie,Gao Feng,et al.Response behaviors of power generation and vonsumption in energy intensive enterprise under time-of-use price[J].Automation of Electric Power Systems,2014,38(8):41-49(in Chinese).
• [25] Prasad P V N,Rao K R M.Failure analysis and replacement strategies of distribution transformers using proportional hazard modeling[C]//Reliability&Maintainability Symposium.IEEE,2003.
• [26]何迪，章禹，郭创新，等．一种面向风险评估的输电线路故障概率模型[J]．电力系统保护与控制，2017,45(7):69-76.He Di,Zhang Yu,Guo Chuangxin,et al.Failure probability model of transmission lines for risk assessment[J].Power System Protection and Control,2017,45(7):69-76(in Chinese).
• [27] Wen Y,Wang Y,Guo C,et al.Risk-oriented preventive control of transmission lines overload[C]//Power&Energy Society General Meeting.IEEE,2012.