林顺富;汤继开;汤波;李东东;符杨;

• 1:上海电力学院电气工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

电网典型电能质量稳态指标的准确预测对优化电网运行方式和提高电网供电质量具有重要意义。根据电能质量稳态指标似周期、非周期的特点,提出一种基于混沌理论和最小二乘支持向量机(least squares support vector machine,LSSVM)的电能质量稳态指标预测模型。首先采用混沌理论对典型电能质量稳态指标历史数据进行相空间重构,构造包含吸引子的新数据空间;其次利用最小二乘支持向量机在高维空间下进行样本训练,并结合粒子群算法优化最小二乘支持向量机参数;最后得到最佳预测模型。基于某地配电网电能质量实际监测数据,采用所提模型进行典型电能质量稳态指标预测,平均相对误差均在8%以下,优于传统BP神经网络预测方法。

关键词(KeyWords)： 电能质量稳态指标;混沌理论;最小二乘支持向量机;相空间重构;粒子群算法

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(51207088);; 上海市教委曙光计划(15SG50);; 国网公司科技项目(SGRI-DL-71-14-004)~~

作者(Author): 林顺富;汤继开;汤波;李东东;符杨;

Email:

DOI:

参考文献(References)：

• [1]刘毅,周雒维,冯浩.电能质量监测网录波数据压缩方法[J].电网技术,2010,34(4):199-203.Liu Yi,Zhou Luowei,Feng Hao.Method for compressing recorded data from power quality monitoring network[J].Power System Technology,2010,34(4):199-203(in Chinese).
• [2]王芳,顾伟,袁晓冬,等.面向智能电网的新一代电能质量管理平台[J].电力自动化设备,2012,32(7):134-139.Wang Fang,Gu Wei,Yuan Xiaodong,et al.Power quality management platform for smart grid[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2012,32(7):134-139(in Chinese).
• [3]Salarvand A,Mirzaeian B,Moallem M.Obtaining a quantitative index for power quality evaluation in competitive electricity market[J].IET Generation,Transmission&Distribution,2010,4(7):810-823.
• [4]张素香,赵丙镇,王风雨,等.海量数据下的电力负荷短期预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2015,35(1):37-42.Zhang Suxiang,Zhao Bingzhen,Wang Fengyu,et al.Short-term power load forecasting based on big data[J].Proceedings of the CSEE,2015,35(1):37-42(in Chinese).
• [5]沈沉,秦建,盛万兴,等.基于小波聚类的配变短期负荷预测方法研究[J].电网技术,2016,40(2):521-526.Shen Chen,Qin Jian,Sheng Wanxing,et al.Study on short-term forecasting of distribution transformer load using wavelet and clustering method[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(2):521-526(in Chinese).
• [6]丁泽俊,刘平,欧阳森,等.电能质量预测与预警机制及其应用[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2015,27(10):87-92.Ding Zejun,Liu Ping,Ou Yangsen,et al.Mechanism of power quality forecast and early warning and their application[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2015,27(10):87-92(in Chinese).
• [7]苏卫卫.基于数据挖掘技术的电能质量稳态数据预测预警研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2014.
• [8]Tomas V,Stanislav M,Tomas J,et al.The power quality forecasting model for off-grid system supported by multi-objective optimization[J].IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics,2017,64(12):9507-9516.
• [9]姜咪慧,王小君,娄竞,等.牵引站馈线谐波电流的分析与预测[J].电网技术,2014,38(1):3829-3823.Jiang Mihui,Wang Xiaojun,Lou Jing,et al.Analysis and prediction of harmonic current in feeder of traction substation[J].Power System Technology,2014,38(1):3829-3823(in Chinese).
• [10]杨淑英.电力系统概论[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2003.
• [11]王德意,杨卓,杨国清.基于负荷混沌特性和最小二乘支持向量机的短期负荷预测[J].电网技术,2008,32(7):66-71.Wang Deyi,Yang Zhuo,Yang Guoqing.Short-term load forecasting based on chaotic characteristic of loads and least squares support vector machines[J].Power System Technology,2008,32(7):66-71(in Chinese).
• [12]刘文颖,门德月,梁纪峰,等.基于灰色关联度与LSSVM组合的负荷预测[J].电网技术,2012,36(8):228-232.Liu Wenying,Men Deyue,Liang Jifeng,et al.Monthly load forecasting based on grey relational degree and least squares support vector machine[J].Power System Technology,2012,36(8):228-232(in Chinese).
• [13]孙巍巍,曾江,俞家良,等.谐波国标中95%概率值评价方式的探讨[J].电力系统保护与控制,2012,40(18):7-11.Sun Weiwei,Zeng Jiang,Yu Jialiang,et al.Research on the evaluation mode of 95%probability value in the national standard GB/T14549-93[J].Power System Protection and Control,2012,40(18):7-11(in Chinese).
• [14]邬春明,林欢.基于二次曲线指数平滑法的风电杆塔预警模型研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2014,42(9):81-85.Wu Chunming,Lin Huan.Research of wind power tower warning model based on quadratic curve exponential smoothing method[J].Power System Protection and Control,2014,42(9):81-85(in Chinese).
• [15]陆振波,蔡志明,姜可宇.基于改进的C-C方法的相空间重构参数选择[J].系统仿真学报,2007,11(19):2527-2529.Lu Zhenbo,Cai Zhiming,Jiang Keyu.Determination of embedding parameters for phase space reconstruction based on improved C-C method[J].Journal of System Simulation,2007,11(19):2527-2529(in Chinese).
• [16]吕金虎,陆君安,陈士华.混沌时间序列分析及其应用[M].武汉:武汉大学出版社,2002.
• [17]戈阳阳,马少华,李洋,等.基于混沌特性的微电网孤岛检测技术[J].电网技术,2016,40(11):3453-3458.Ge Yangyang,Ma Shaohua,Li Yang,et al.Microgrid islanding detection based on chaotic property[J].Power System Technology,2016,40(11):3453-3458(in Chinese).
• [18]Wang J G,Zhou J Z,Peng B.A hybrid neural genetic method for load forecasting based on phase space reconstruction[J].Kybernetes,2010,39(8):1291-1297.
• [19]Miyatake M,Veerachary M,Toriumi F.Maximum power point tracking of multiple photovoltaic arrays:a PSO approach[J].IEEE Transactions on Aerospace and Electronic Systems,2011,47(1):367-380.
• [20]贾嵘,蔡振华,康睿.基于最小二乘支持向量机的系统边际电价预测[J].高电压技术,2006,32(11):145-148.Jia Rong,Cai Zhenhua,Kang Rui.Forecasting system marginal price based on similarity search and least square support vector machine[J].High Voltage Engineering,2006,32(11):145-148(in Chinese).
• [21]Martin M T,Pennini F,Plastino A.Fisher’s information and the analysis of complex signals[J].Physics Letters A,1999,256(2-3):173-180.