周艳;赵晋泉;胡晓飞;杨铖;马世英;许鹏飞;包严;

• 1:河海大学能源与电气学院
• 2:国网安徽省电力公司
• 3:中国电力科学研究院有限公司

摘要(Abstract)：

针对高比例可再生能源电力系统采用半不变量法进行电压稳定负荷裕度计算中存在的由于随机变量波动范围大造成精度低的问题,提出一种基于场景分区的半不变量法负荷裕度概率评估方法。首先采用Wasserstein距离指标和轮盘赌选择算法建立可再生能源随机出力多场景概率模型,形成初始场景集;其次基于改进K-means聚类算法对初始场景集进行分区;继而采用半不变量法和Gram-Charlier级数展开法对每个分区分别计算负荷裕度的概率分布,最后应用全概率公式获得场景全集中负荷裕度的整体概率分布。该文对工程应用中场景分区数目选取策略进行探讨,并对IEEE118节点系统进行仿真分析,验证了所提方法的有效性。

关键词(KeyWords)： 高比例可再生能源;电压稳定;概率评估;场景分区;半不变量;负荷裕度

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(51577049);; 国家电网公司科技项目：受端电网频率和电压动态稳定全过程辅助决策技术研究~~

作者(Author): 周艳;赵晋泉;胡晓飞;杨铖;马世英;许鹏飞;包严;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2019.0461

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