周明;李琰;李庚银;

• 1:新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学)

摘要(Abstract)：

随着波动性的风光等新能源并网比例不断提高,电力系统需要配备更多的调节能力。如何量化应对新能源出力等不确定性所需的调节能力是大规模新能源接入系统面临的一个新问题。该文采用通用生成函数(universal generating function,UGF)建立包括风电出力、负荷出力及机组随机故障的不确定性模型,进而将UGF与随机生产模拟(probabilistic production simulation,PPS)相结合,旨在建立反映发电侧调节能力的运行备用容量与可靠性之间的关系;并通过建立日前发电-备用双层模型实现确保系统可靠运行的发电计划。上层规划模型根据预测的负荷、结合风电预测出力制定基于指定可靠性的备用容量约束的日前机组组合方案;下层模型考虑各种不确定性因素,利用基于UGF的PPS建立系统运行备用与可靠性的量化关系,进而校验上层规划的机组组合方案是否能提供足够的备用,不足时则反馈给上层进行修正。通过改进的IEEE-118节点系统的仿真计算验证了所提模型的合理性和方法的有效性。

关键词(KeyWords)： 运行备用;可靠性;机组组合;随机生产模拟;通用生成函数

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFB0900100);; 国家自然科学基金项目(51577061)~~

作者(Author): 周明;李琰;李庚银;

Email:

DOI: 10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2018.0643

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