基于小脑模型关节控制器神经网络的短期电价预测SHORT-TERM ELECTRICITY PRICE FORCASTING USING CEREBELLAR MODEL ARTICULATION CONTROLLER NEURAL NETWORK
陈建华,周浩
摘要(Abstract):
电价预测是电力市场决策的基础。文中介绍了采用小脑模型关节控制器(CMAC)神经网络建立预测提前1天不同时段的电力市场短期电价的预测模型。并以美国加州电力市场的数据作为计算实例,分别采用CMAC神经网络和反向传播算法(BP)神经网络进行短期电价预测。两种预测结果对比表明,CMAC神经网络具有所需训练样本少、输出稳定性好、计算速度快和预测精度高等优点,比较适用于短期电价预测。
关键词(KeyWords): 电力市场;神经网络;电价预测;小脑模型关节控制器;反向传播算法;电力系统
基金项目(Foundation):
作者(Author): 陈建华,周浩
Email:
DOI:
参考文献(References):
- [1]HippertH S,PedreiraC E,SouzaR C.Neural networks for short-term load forecasting:a review and evaluation[J].IEEE Trans onPowerSystems,2001,16(1):44-55.
- [2]康重庆,程旭,夏清,等(KangChongqing,ChengXu,XiaQing et al).一种规范化的处理相关因素的短期负荷预测新策略(New unified approach to short-term load forecasting considering correlated factors)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation ofElectricPowerSystems),1999,23(18):32-35.
- [3]SzkutaB R,SanabriaL A,DillionT S.Electricity price short-term forecasting using artificial neural networks[J].IEEE Trans onPowerSystems,1999,14(3):851-857.
- [4]杨莉,邱家驹,江道灼(YangLi,QiuJiaju,JiangDaozhuo).基于BP网络的下一交易日无约束市场清算价格预测模型(Based day-ahead unconstrained market clearing price forecasting model)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation ofElectricPowerSystems),2001,25(19):11-14.
- [5]黄日新,康重庆,夏清(HuangRixin,KangChongqing,XiaQing).电力市场中边际电价预测(System marginal price forecasting in electricity market)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation ofElectricPowerSystems),2000,24(22):9-12.
- [6]刘正国,付祥明,高伏英,等(LiuZhengguo,FuXiangming,GaoFuying et al).基于神经网络的浙江发电市场清算电价预测方法(Forcasting markrt-clearing price inZhejiang generationg market using neural network)[J].电力系统自动化(Automation ofElectricPowerSystems),2002,26(9):49-52.
- [7]Silver-WarnerS J,GloverR J,StonhamT J.Associative memory neural networks for time series prediction[A].Proceedings of theThirdIEEE InternationalConference onElectronics,Circuits,andSystems[C],1996,2:651-654.
- [8]严蔚敏,吴伟民.数据结构[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1992.
- [9]杨建刚.人工神经网络实用教程[M].杭州:浙江大学出版社,2001.
- [10]焦李成.神经网络应用与实现[M].西安:西安电子科技大学出版社,1995.