风电功率预测技术综述Summarization of Wind Power Prediction Technology
谷兴凯;范高锋;王晓蓉;赵海翔;戴慧珠;
摘要(Abstract)：
对于有大规模风电接入的电网来说,短期风电功率预测对于电力系统的调度和安全稳定运行有重要的影响。文章较全面地综述了国内外对短期风电功率预测技术的研究现状,介绍了与风电功率预测相关的物理方法和统计方法,分析了预测误差产生的原因及其评价方法,对我国的风电功率预测研究与开发工作提出了建议。
关键词(KeyWords)： 风力发电;功率;电力系统;预测;估计
基金项目(Foundation):
作者(Author): 谷兴凯;范高锋;王晓蓉;赵海翔;戴慧珠;
Email:
DOI:
参考文献(References)：
- [1]Troen I,Petersen E L.European wind atlas[M].Roskilde:Risoe National Laboratory,1989.
- [2]Nielsen T S,Madsen H.WPPT—a tool for wind power prediction[C].EWEA Special Topic Conference,Kassel,2000.
- [3]Giebel G,Lars L,Joensen A K,et al.The zephyr-project—the next generation prediction system[C].Procedings of Wind Power for the 21st Century,Kassel,Germany,2000.
- [4]Focken U M,Lange H P W.Previento—a wind power prediction system with an innovative upscaling algorithm[C].European Wind Energy Conference,Copenhagen,Denmark,2001.
- [5]Lange M U,Focken D.Heinemann previento—regional wind power prediction with risk control[C].Proceedings of the World Wind Energy Conference,Berlin,2002.
- [6]Bernhard L,Kurt R,Bernhard E,et al.Wind power prediction in Germany—recent advances and future challenges[C].European Wind Energy Conference,Athens,2006.
- [7]Bailey B,Brower M C,Zack J.Short-term wind forecasting[C].European Wind Energy Conference,Nice France,1999.
- [8]Zack J W,Brower M C,Bailey B H.Validating of the forewind model in wind forecasting application[C].EUWEC special topic conference wind power for the 21st century,Kassel,Germany,2000.
- [9]SánchezI O,Ravelo J,Usaola C,et al.Sipreólico—a wind power谷兴凯等:风电功率预测技术综述Vol.31 Supplement 2 prediction system based on flexible combination of dynamic models.application to the spanish power system[C].First IEA Joint Action Symposium on Wind Forecasting Techniques,Norrkoping,Sweden,2002.
- [10]Hatziargyriou N,Contaxis G,Matos M,et al.More care—advice for secure operation of isolated power systems with increased renewable energy penetration and storage[C].European Wind Energy Conference,Copenhagen,2001.
- [11]肖永山,王维庆,霍晓萍.基于神经网络的风电场风速时间序列预测研究[J].节能技术,2007,25(2):106-108.
- [12]杨秀媛,肖洋,陈树勇.风电场风速和发电功率预测研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(11):1-5.
- [13]Bossanyi E A.Short-term wind prediction using kalman filters[J].Wind Engineering,1985,9(1):1-8.
- [14]Lexiadis M A,Dokopoulos P,Sah S,et al.Short term forecasting of wind speed and related electrical power[J].Solar Energy,1998,63(1):61-68.
- [15]周毅,侯志明,刘宇迪.数值天气预报基础[M].北京:气象出版社,2003.
- [16]Beyer H G T,Degner J H.Short term prediction of wind speed and power output of a wind turbine with neural networks[C].European Wind Energy Conference,Thessaloniki,1994.
- [17]Kariniotakis G N,Stavrakakis G S,Nogaret E F.Wind power forecasting using advanced neural networks models[J].IEEE Trans on Energy Conversion,1996,11(4):762-767.
- [18]Bechrakis D A,Sparis P D.Wind speed prediction using artificial neural networks[J].Wind Engineering,1998,22(6):287-295.